Monday, March 18th – Morning Forecast

Monday: Sunny. High: 39°F

Monday Night: Clear. Low 28°F

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 64°F

Tuesday Night:  Clear. Low: 37°F

Wednesday: Few clouds . High: 52°F

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General Discussion:

Today we be colder than the past few days with a high temperature below average. Tomorrow and Wednesday will have warmer temperatures reaching back to more seasonal conditions. Sky conditions will be clear for both today and Tuesday with few clouds for Wednesday.

Counts

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Forecasters: Counts

Date Issued: 3/04/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

For 300mb as of right now, at 15z, there a positively tilted trough that is vertically stacked throughout the different levels of the atmosphere. At 21z today, the polar jet stream has a small jet streak that is helping this push colder air to the surface. This positive trough moves through to the east overnight and leaves our region with a weak jet stream with winds ranging from 30-70 knots. The cut off low is still present in the southwest CONUS but will start to dissipate by Wednesday and could raise concern for a future forecast.

At 500 mb, as previously mentioned the positively tilted trough is vertically stacked as of right now at 15Z. By Tuesday at 03Z, there will be no vorticity until beyond this forecast. The cut off low is still shown in the southwest and that low will eventually move to our region starting around Wednesday, and could become a shortwave that will move through our CWA.

At 700 and 850 mb, there is little to no moisture at both levels throughout our entire forecast. Cold air advection is currently in our area and by 06Z Tuesday there will be warm air advection aloft, other than that there it will remain relatively stagnate in these levels until beyond our forecast period.

At the surface this positively tilted trough that is stacked throughout the upper levels is shown with the 1000-500mb thickness contours, as this cold air is dipping into our region today. This trough also has a tighter temperature gradient so we can expect some stronger winds at the surface today. The 5400 line which indicates colder air moves out by Tuesday at 12Z. Temperatures will be more seasonal as we enter the spring equinox with clear skies until Wednesday when we will experience a few clouds.

Future forecasters should be attentive to the cut off low that will be de-amplifying possibly by Wednesday and could cause a disturbance in our area.

-Counts