Monday Night: Clear. Low: 28°F
Tuesday: Sunny. High: 64°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 37°F
Wednesday: Increasing Evening Clouds. High: 52°F
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy: 33°F
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General Discussion:
A hard freeze is forecast to occur tonight, any temperature sensitive plant could be killed with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s. Temperatures will rebound tomorrow into the low to mid 60s before a cold front will drop temperatures again Tuesday night. The week will remain dry through Thursday morning.
-Beam
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Forecasters: Beam, Jackson, Sallot
Date Issued: 3/18/2024 6:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A hard freeze (low temp 28 or less) is likely Monday Night.
- Elevated fire potential Tuesday afternoon.
- Dry weather through the period.
A hard freeze is forecast to occur Monday night (tonight). The high temperature for Columbia only managed to achieve the upper 30s for Monday (today); radiational cooling is expected to occur Monday night (tonight) with clear conditions expected, dropping the temperatures into the upper 20s. Currently, an upper level cutoff low sits over the Desert Southwest. This cutoff low will stay put for a little while longer before it meanders east and will become a part of the main flow again early Wednesday morning. The cutoff low will then move to the east toward the central US. Mid-level vorticity with this system will remain to the south in Arkansas and not much lift is present in Missouri through the forecast period. 1000-500mb thickness will slowly increase through Tuesday. That, coupled with southerly surface winds that will be consistent through Central Missouri Tuesday will lead to a warm up into the low to mid 60s. However, a cold front will come through Tuesday afternoon, switching the winds in Central Missouri to the west, but with the aforementioned factors of minimal lift and negligible vorticity, no precipitation is expected with the passage of the front. Winds ahead of this dry cold front will be strong (gusting to near 30mph) and relative humidity should remain below 35%. With all of these aspects coming together as well as the abnormally dry vegetation, there will be elevated fire danger Tuesday, though it will be more apparent to our south and east. Mid to low-level moisture will start to appear in the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but due to minimal lift and negligible vorticity, this moisture will just lead to some cloud cover.
-Beam