Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 35°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 54°F
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 35°F
Thursday: 20-30% Chance of Precipitation. High: 53°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Cloudy: 41°F
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General Discussion:
The Tuesday warm up will come to an end as a cold front moves through the area tonight around midnight. Wednesday will see lots of sunshine and temperatures will return to the mid 50s. Rain chances will become possible on Thursday evening into Friday morning, but will remain minimal (20-30%).
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Forecasters: Thee, Yost
Date Issued: 3/19/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-Around seasonal temperatures will stick around for the remainder of the forecast period.
-Precipitation is possible Thursday evening into Friday morning, but chances will remain minimal (20-30%).
The GFS and NAM were used conjointly for this forecast due to both accurately placing a high-pressure system to the south. Current visible satellite imagery portrays ample sunshine with clear skies all across the region as the high-pressure system hovers over the southern portion of the CONUS. The high pressure has influenced winds to switch to a southerly component with ample warm air advection occuring with the wind shift. This has allowed for Tuesday high temperatures to reach around 10 degrees above seasonal temperatures (Avg High 58). The warm-up will clash with a cold front draped off of a surface low-pressure system sitting over the Great Lakes Region. The cold front is expected to make its way through the CWA by midnight on Tuesday night. Winds will transition back to northerly flow with the frontal passage influencing temperatures to remain around seasonal throughout Wednesday.
A Rex block pattern sits in place over the Western CONUS and will begin to progress by Wednesday evening. The upper-level ridging pattern will begin to flatten out as it moves eastward across the Central CONUS and a trough will follow the same transition. The trough will de-amplify and present itself as a shortwave as it crosses the Rockies. The aforementioned shortwave will induce lee-cyclogensis on the eastern side of the Rockies. The associated low-pressure system will take a southern route as the shortwave progresses through the Southern Plains Thursday night. The CWA will stay to the north of all of the strongest forcing associated with the shortwave, but small pockets of forcing alongside low-level moisture will present some chances for precipitation. Soundings were analyzed to gain a better idea of the precipitation chances and showed a small, low-level column of saturation in the Thursday overnight hours. However, the chances for precipitation remain minimal (20-30%). SREF and GEFS plumes were in agreement with rainfall totals around two one-hundredths of an inch.
-Thee