Monday, April 1st – Morning Forecast

Monday: Possible Showers. High: 74°F

Monday Night: Severe Thunderstorms Possible. Low 58°F

Tuesday: Possible Showers. High: 58°F

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 37°F

Wednesday: Clearing Clouds High: 51°F

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General Discussion:

Severe Storms are expected to occur throughout tonight. Damaging winds, large hail, flooding, and tornadoes are all possibilities that are being closely looked at. It is imperative that people stay informed with the weather through their local news stations for today. There is also a chance for showers before and after the severe storm threat passes by.

Blodgett, Counts

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts

Date Issued: 04/01/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend of the GFS and NAM will be used to provide the forecast for this period. Currently, Missouri is on the back end of a long-wave ridge and a trough is pushing into the region. Embedded in those long-waves is a very high number of shortwaves and many areas where divergence is present. Those short-waves will continue to be a presence throughout all of the significant levels of the atmosphere overnight tonight. This is will provide a lot of instability for storms to go severe. The NAM is more aggressive on the strength and the size of the areas of vorticity at 500 mb. The amount of rotation at this level offers the possibility for some of these storms to be supercells.

Moving down to 700 and 850 mb, there is a large influx of moisture from the gulf will be pushing into the area tonight going into tomorrow. All of the ingredients for severe weather are present for today, but timing is something still being discussed. The severe storms are likely to start firing off around 7 pm, however there are chances of rain that could occur beforehand. 7 pm is around the time the cold front is expected to pass over central Missouri.

The lift at 500 mb will provide conditions for large hail to be considered in this period. The supercells previously talked about have the possibility of being tornadic due to veering winds moving up the significant levels and the high vorticity in the upper levels. If tornadoes do not occur, then damaging winds will still be a threat people should take note of.

After these storms pass, temperatures will steadily decrease throughout tomorrow. Chances of showers will also continue into tomorrow, but the severe weather threat will already be past us by this point in time. After the rain passes, there should be no more active weather for the rest of the period. Overnight lows Tuesday will be down into the 30s, but will not go below freezing.

As Wednesday approaches, clouds will slowly start to break away and the sun will make a return. Conditions will be breezy throughout the rest of our period.

-Blodgett, Counts