Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 64°F
Saturday Night: Mostly Cloudy, Rain Likely. Low: 49°F
Sunday: Clouds depart. High: 70°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 46°F
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General Discussion:
Hold on to your hats for a windy weekend! Gusts up to 35 mph are expected Sunday afternoon. A little rain is expected to fall early Sunday morning, but conditions this weekend will mostly remain mild as we continue this week’s warming trend into the weekend.
-Collier
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Forecasters: Collier, McCormack
Date Issued: 04/05/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Chances of at least rain occurring Saturday evening into Sunday morning are good, but total accumulated precipitation is likely to be under 0.1″.
- This weekend will be very windy, with peak gusts of up to 35mph forecast to occur Sunday afternoon.
On Friday afternoon, a ridge will move into the forecast area, bringing mostly clear sky conditions with a few stray upper-level clouds. Friday night should be clear as well, with lows in the upper 30s thanks to radiational cooling and calmer winds at the surface. While this area of high pressure takes the shape of an omega pattern with lows situated on either side, it will not do much blocking. The ridge will erode relatively quickly over the course of Saturday, leading to a more zonal upper-level flow that will allow the incoming low pressure system to pass quickly.
Saturday morning will be sunny, with clouds beginning to build in during the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to follow the warming trend observed over the past few days, with a high in the mid 60s–right on par with average for this time of year. This warming will be aided by a strong breeze from the southeast at 20 mph.
Over the course of Saturday evening and Sunday morning, the county warning area will be situated squarely at the exit region of a jet streak and a surface low pressure center will swing up from Colorado and over Nebraska. This will have an associated band of moisture extending south and east that will produce some rain in the early hours of Sunday morning. However, confidence is low (30%) that this moisture will be persistent or deep enough to produce more than a tenth of an inch of accumulated precipitation, especially with a dry layer hanging on near the surface, according to modeled soundings. Severe weather indices are unimpressive, with only a few hundred J/kg CAPE at max and the LI hanging around 10. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, but this event will not be severe in nature.
Sunday will be even warmer than Saturday, with a high temperature of around 70, despite the passage of the mid-latitude cyclone-associated cold front. This is in part due to lack of a typical upper level trough with the zonal flow continuing aloft. Clouds will clear throughout the day, allowing for sunshine to warm things up and a strong southwesterly wind working to advect in more warm air. Sunday evening will remain clear, with a low in the mid 40s.
Future forecasters should monitor the sky conditions for Monday’s eclipse.