Monday, April 8th – Morning Forecast
Monday: Sunny. High: 77°F
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 49°F
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 70°F
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 48°F
Wednesday: : Partly Cloudy. High 66°F
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General Discussion:
We will be having a clear view of the solar eclipse here in Columbia. There will be a slight cooling trend as a cold front passes overhead, but there will be no precipitation associated with the passing. Slight chances of rain on Wednesday, but we believe those showers will pass to our south.
Blodgett, Counts
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts
Date Issued: 04/08/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
A blend of the GFS and NAM will be used for the duration of this forecast. Due to the placement of moisture transport, the jet stream, and other meteorological features, a slight bias will be taken towards the GFS. Starting at the 250 mb level, a longwave trough will be passing through the southwestern regions of the CONUS throughout the duration of this forecast. The trough axis will slowly shift from a positive tilt to a negative tilt over the next few days. Multiple shortwaves are embedded in the longwave as well as many regions of divergence. Though this upper level setup is showing a lot of similarities to last weeks forecast, the features are noticeably more south and should not have an affect over Columbia.
At 500 mb, there are many regions of vorticity that are coming through with the low pressure system in the trough. As that low moves through, it will pull moisture in from the gulf and form into a mid-latitude cyclone by Wednesday. The transportation of this moisture is best seen at 850 mb rather than 700 mb. This will also be staying to our south, so we will not be seeing any active weather from this system.
If there are any chances of rain, it will most likely fall south of Columbia and we will only be seeing some clouds in our forecast window. The reason we believe these storms won’t hit us is because the low pressure system that’s powering these storms are not shifting to the north during our time frame.
-Blodgett, Counts