Friday: Sunny. High 64°F

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 45°F

Saturday: Few clouds. High: 81°F

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 58°F

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 86°F

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General Discussion:

Happy Friday Tigers! This weekend we will see a significant warming trend along with plenty of sunshine. As a low pressure system moves off to the east, ridging builds in over the Midwest through the weekend followed by a closed low making its way to the west coast by Sunday. Temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far with highs in the 80s tomorrow and Sunday, with little cloud cover to promote heating during the daytime hours.

-Casserly

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Forecasters: Casserly, Warden, Shaw

Date Issued: 04/12/2024 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

• A trough-ridge pattern is evident through the weekend across the CONUS, with ridging building in through the weekend and bringing fair weather to the Midwest.
• Temperatures will reach near record highs for mid-April (average high being 66-67°F) as strong warm air advection blankets Missouri this weekend.
• A closed low makes its way onto the west coast by Sunday, pushing us into a trough pattern by next week with unsettled weather on its way.

An upper-level trough is present and deepening as it pushes its way east off the coast through the weekend. A ridging pattern can be seen settling over the Midwest, though a closed low will end this pattern as it makes its way on the west coast by Sunday around 03Z. The NAM and GFS were both in good agreement regarding upper atmospheric features, though temperature profiles differed slightly in soundings. This ridge pattern is evident down through the mid-levels, indicating very fair weather for Missouri through the weekend. At 500mb, there is some circulation that moves along this ridge and over Columbia on Sunday though other ingredients for active weather are not present.

Through the mid-levels, no significant moisture is present all weekend. With high pressure and dry atmospheric conditions, this does present an increased risk for fire weather. Though winds will be mainly out of the WNW today, this will shift to SSW by tomorrow as the ridging builds. Combined with our increasing temperatures this will also aid dry conditions. In addition, winds down to the surface will be quite gusty, with the NBM estimating peak wind gusts near or above 25mph today and tomorrow.

At the surface, solenoids begin to take shape as southwesterly winds prevail through the weekend, indicating high temperatures will continue to increase each day. Strong WAA will be abundant across Missouri and the threat of a record high becomes more likely at the start of next week. Sounding profiles and the added factor that upper-level moisture is not present show that cloud cover will be minimized during the day which will maximize diurnal heating. Future forecasters should monitor possible record high temperatures as well as the closed low that makes its way across California by the beginning of next week.

-Casserly