Monday, April 22nd – Morning Forecast

Monday: Sunny. High: 70°F

Monday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low 53°F

Tuesday: Cloudy with a Chance of Showers. High: 69°F

Tuesday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 43°F

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High 68°F

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General Discussion:

Rain chances are returning this week with our most likely scenarios playing out on Tuesday and Thursday. Any day around those days will be relatively fair weather with high temperatures staying in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Blodgett, Counts

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts

Date Issued: 04/22/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend of the GFS and NAM will be used for the duration of this forecast. However, due to the aggressiveness of lower level features, we will lean a bit more towards the GFS run. With our best chance of rain in our forecast window being on Tuesday, it will be important to look at all key features to best determine rain amounts, locations and timing.

Starting at the hemispheric level, Missouri is moving out of a ridge and is going into a more zonal flow patter. This isn’t quite the story for other parts of the U.S. On the 250 mb level, A low is moving south from Canada, bringing in a small polar jet and a few areas of divergence. This jet will fall into the northern sector of Missouri on Tuesday around 18 – 21z. A few regions where vorticity is present can be seen in the 500 mb map just ahead of the jet. There’s also a few shortwave disturbances embedded in the leading edge of the jet, but not enough to raise concern for any severe storms. These disturbances and lifting mechanisms

Moving down to 700 mb, there is a belt of moisture coming down from the low in Canada that does extend into our forecast region. The most moisture we will see is also around that 18 – 21z time frame that we see in the upper levels. The 850 mb level also shows that moisture level maxing out in the same time frame. The low level jet isn’t a present feature in the immediate development of this storm system.

Looking at the surface, the NAM and the GFS are both thinking there will be showers in the aforementioned time frame, and I can agree with the timing of the storm. However, the NAM is a lot more aggressive with the amount of rain that falls than the GFS. I don’t believe there will be a large amount of rainfall, but I believe rain will still come down, therefore, the GFS appears to be the better of the two model runs.

Future forecasters should watch the upcoming low pressure system moving into our forecast area for Thursday that could bring potential for more rain.

-Blodgett, Counts