Monday, April 29th – Morning Forecast

Monday: Sunny. High: 75°F

Monday Night: Clear. Low 54°F

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 82°F

Tuesday Night: Rain expected, no threat of severe storms. Low: 61°F

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High 81°F

=============================================================================

General Discussion:

After the severe potential throughout the weekend for today and Tuesday will remain clear with high temperatures in the mid to high 70s. Above average temperatures throughout the entirety of our forecast. Rain chances (40-60%) for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning not expecting any potential for severe thunderstorms until after our forecast period.

Blodgett, Counts

=============================================================================

Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts

Date Issued: 04/29/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend of the GFS and NAM will be used for the duration of this forecast. At 300mb, this morning the subtropical jet was present with a jet streak that help aid some convergence at the surface overnight. This jet will leave our forecast area by 18Z. It then will remain clear until a jet streak forces a trough to push down in Montana and it will begin to tilt negative by the end of our forecast shift.

For 500mb, a line of voticity is in line with the storms at the surface from this morning in SE MO. With high pressure building in for Monday and Tuesday it remains clear. Little, if any, vorticity will be associated with the rain potential for Wednesday at 03Z. For the remainder of our forecast period the trough that was previously mentioned, will have associated vorticity with it and will leaving our forecast area with more potential for severe weather, after our forecast period.

At 700mb, upper level moisture begins to clear by 15Z this morning and doesn’t return until 15Z Tuesday. For 850mb, a cyclone had developed late last night and has moved east to Great Lakes region by 21Z tonight. Ridging throughout the Great Plains will keep upper level moisture to a minimum and will have sky conditions clear until Wednesday at 03Z. With this moisture and with the LLJ staying southwest there will be not a lot of forcing to help indicate there will not be a lot of potential for severe weather along with the soundings.

At the surface, overnight we did have some thunderstorms but by 21Z tonight, that baroclinic system is moving east with a high pressure building in behind it. It remains clear until Wednesday at 03Z where there is potential for rain. With the data from the soundings, lack of moisture, and lack of vorticity there will not be any threat severe thunderstorms. With a ridge developed over the Great Plains this will aid above average temperatures for our forecast shift. For the past few weeks we have seen this pattern and will again this week as a low pressure system moves into our area by Wednesday morning and into the evening out of our forecast shift.

Future forecasters should watch the upcoming low pressure system moving into our forecast area for Thursday that could bring potential for more rain.

– Counts