Friday: Scattered thunderstorms beginning around 5pm. High: 89°F
Friday Night: Cloudy, occasional rain. Low: 68°F
Saturday: Clouds dissipating through the morning. High: 85°F
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 65°F
Sunday: Clear. High: 85°F
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General Discussion:
Happy Labor Day Weekend, Tigers! Expect precipitation to roll in starting around 5pm this evening and stopping around 8. Cloud cover will subside through Saturday morning, leaving us with clear sky conditions for the remainder of the weekend. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s.
-Collier
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Forecasters: Collier, Scheerer, Iffrig
Date Issued: 08/30/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– A cold front will sweep through the forecast area this afternoon and evening, bringing with it showers and potential thunderstorms.
– Clouds will clear throughout the day Saturday as an upper-level trough weakens and moves out to our east.
– A second cold front is expected to pass through Sunday evening, though no associated precipitation is expected.
An upper-level trough situated over the forecast area is set to move off to the east and weaken over the course of the next few days. A cold front embedded in the trough axis spans the great plains region as of Friday morning, and is expected to reach the forecast area by late Friday afternoon (around 5pm). Models agree on timing of the front’s arrival, but differ as to how much precipitation will be associated with its passage. The NAM, GFS and HRRR agree that for the most part, rainfall totals should be around 0.2-0.3″ for this event. The NAM is resolving small areas of much higher accumulation along the I-70 corridor, showing 3-hr accumulation values up to 2″. While some small cells of heavy rainfall may be possible with convection along the frontal boundary, we are keeping our forecasted rainfall for the area around 0.25″.
CAPE values Friday evening are hanging around 1500 J/kg, and 700mb omega values are showing a fair amount of upward vertical motion. However, as with many late summer thunderstorms, shear will be too weak to sustain more organized systems. There may be some strong downdrafts, with DCAPE values of around 900 J/kg, which could result in some damaging wind gusts, but other than that, no significant severe weather is expected. Precipitation should wrap up around 8pm, though scattered showers later into the evening cannot be ruled out.
The Friday evening front will not lower temperatures significantly, and cloud cover through the night will keep overnight temperatures in the high 60’s. Over the course of Saturday, much of the moisture will be pushed out of the region following the cold front passage. Mostly clear sky conditions are expected throughout the rest of the weekend, with high temperatures in the mid-80s—cooler than the past few days, but still right around average temperatures for this time of year. Fog may be possible Sunday morning, with clear skies, low wind, a saturated surface, and a cooler overnight low (around 65F). A second cold front will pass through the forecast area Sunday evening, bring more significant cold air advection, but as the majority of the moisture will have already left the area by then, this is not expected to produce any precipitation.
– Collier