Wednesday Morning Forecast 09/04/24
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny. High: 84
Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 63
Thursday: Increasing Clouds. High: 88
Thursday Night: Rain possible around sunrise. Mostly Cloudy. Low: 63
Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 76
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Warmer temperatures today into tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows will cool off into the low 60s each night. An umbrella may be needed as a cold front is expected to bring some light showers to the region early on Friday morning. Temperatures are expected to cool off behind the cold front with highs in the 70s on Friday and even cooler into the weekend.
– Peine, McCurdy, Latlip, Brucker
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Peine, McCurdy, Latlip, Brucker
Date Issued: 09/04/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Seasonable conditions will continue through Thursday with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the lower 60s.
- The next chance for rain will be late Thursday night into early Friday morning due to an approaching cold front that will bring fall-like temperatures for the weekend.
The 06Z deterministic GFS was utilized for this forecast due to a suspected moisture bias with the 06Z deterministic NAM. Currently, a weak surface high is positioned over central Missouri, which led to calm winds and a clear sky overnight allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 40s and low 50s across the region before sunrise this morning. This chill won’t last long as 5-10kt southwesterly winds accompanied by plenty of solar insolation will lead to a quick warm up today with highs reaching the mid 80s by this afternoon. There is also, currently, a weak upper level ridge to the west stretching through the plains into southern Ontario. As this ridge shifts eastward into the area, heights aloft will be on the rise leading to mostly clear sky conditions and pleasant weather conditions. With the ridge axis moving through tomorrow, placing us in southerly flow aloft, temperatures will be slightly warmer than today with highs reaching the upper 80s.
This weak and subtle ridge will be quickly followed by a deep upper level longwave trough that currently has an axis that is positioned over Wyoming and into Saskatchewan. The longwave trough will dig into Ontario by Friday, placing us in deep northwesterly flow, with its associated surface cold front dropping southeastward into the Midwest. The cold front is expected to be on our doorstep by 09Z on Friday with weak and scattered rain chances along the front. Overall, there is weak surface convergence along this front and limited moisture in the mid and near surface levels that will lead to very scattered light showers Friday morning. Behind this cold front, weak CAA will continue in the low to mid levels possibly resulting in lingering cloud cover throughout the day Friday. Thus, the most noticeable change will be the temperatures as highs will be in the 70s on Friday and may even be in the upper 60s on Saturday.
– Peine, McCurdy, Latlip, Brucker