Monday, September 23rd – Morning Forecast
Monday: Daytime Showers. High: 66°F
Monday Night: Cloudy with continued on/off showers. Low: 60°F
Tuesday: Cloudy with high chance of showers. High: 70°F
Tuesday Night: Clouds clearing. Low: 54°F
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 76°F
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General Discussion:
Heading into the work week there will be multiple rounds of showers but we do not expect them to be severe. Below average temperatures (<75°F) will also be hanging around at the start of the week.
– Blodgett, Nobles, Elston
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Nobles, Elston
Date Issued: 09/23/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Showers persist into Tuesday evening with a small break Tuesday morning.
- As these showers continue, high temperatures will be below average(<75°F).
- With a brief break of rain forecasted Wednesday we will see sunny skies.
Multiple rounds of showers persist from the Monday morning hours into the evening but stopping for a short period of time in the Tuesday morning hours and then continuing for majority of Tuesday morning and afternoon.
At 250mb, we are currently in a zonal flow as we observe, with the GFS, a Low pressure system that will move into the region Tuesday evening. As that low pressure system moves in, there will be a transition to a meridional flow pattern, which indicates a potential for more active weather in our area. Shortwave disturbances are prevalent behind the system indicating storm relevance from the deepening low moving into our area. This idea is reinforced by moderate values of vorticity being shown at 500 mb. Without a negatively tilted trough axis, and the lack of some other key factors, we do not expect these storms to be severe for our area.
Looking at 700 and 850 mb, the GFS is showing sufficient moisture throughout the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere today which further convinces us of rain continuing for much of the day. Pushing into the evening and overnight hours, the GFS and NAM start to disagree on whether or not there will be a break in cloud cover and storm potential. We have been leaning more on the GFS and believe that on and off rain potentials will still be considerable during the later hours tonight.
Rain on and off will persist into Tuesday as the cut-off low moves past central Missouri, continuing to bring in sufficient moisture. Clouds will begin to clear in the evening hours on Tuesday as that low continues falling to the south. Sunshine will be returning on Wednesday, bringing our high temperatures back around the average for this time of year.
Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the low pressure system over Arkansas and the developing tropical cyclone that will be pushing into Florida. There is potential that these systems could interact with each other in such a way that brings more rain into the region later on in the week.
-Blodgett, Nobles, Elston