Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 44°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 74°F

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low 52°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 85°F

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 58°F

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General Discussion:

Temperatures will linger around average for the remainder of the week, with a slight warming trend into the middle 80s by Thursday. Morning temperatures will drop into the 50s and even the mid-40s by early Wednesday morning. 

– Schifferdecker

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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson, Schifferdecker

Date Issued: 10/01/2024 5:00 P.M.

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• A cold front moved across Missouri this morning, leading to near-average high temperatures (Avg High: 74° F) and gusty winds. 
• Dry conditions will persist throughout the week as high pressure dominates the region. 

A cold front originating from a low-pressure system in central Canada moved through the region today, bringing cooler temperatures in the low 70s for Tuesday. This front will continue to move southeast throughout the rest of the day and will lead to low temperatures in the mid-40s overnight, much lower than the seasonal average of 52 °F. Clear conditions overnight will proliferate this overnight cooling trend and allow for abundant radiational cooling. Small pockets of divergence at 250mb are present around 21Z Tuesday, but this is not expected to impact the region. A jet streak following this low near the US-Canada border is also apparent but will remain north of the Mid-Missouri region. 

Behind the aforementioned front, a high-pressure system will build in and contribute to settled weather. The previously mentioned cold front carried the moisture out of the region. An absence of divergence at 200mb, along with these other two factors, is leading to clear and dry conditions for the next couple of days. 

As the week progresses, current meridional flow will shift to a more zonal flow above 500mb by 12Z Wednesday. But otherwise, a lack of moisture near the surface and no divergence in the upper levels will persist and continue the clear weather pattern for the remainder of the week. Winds will shift from the north to the south by 12Z Wednesday and add to the slight warming trend into Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will reach into the mid-80s, which is nearly 10 degrees above average. By 00Z Friday, a low-pressure system and some associated moisture will move in from the southwest, which should be noted by future forecasting shifts.

– Schifferdecker