Campus Weather Forecast
- Campus Weather Forecast
Campus Weather Forecast 05/07/2026
Thursday Afternoon Forecast (05/07/2026)
Thursday Night: Building Clouds. 49°F
Friday: Afternoon Thunderstorms (80%). 74°F
Friday Night: Chance Showers (30%). 52°F
Saturday: Morning Fog, Partly Cloudy. 80°F
Saturday Night: Building Clouds, Chance Showers (50%). 57°F
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General Discussion:
Thunderstorms are expected on Friday, and a second round of rain is expected going into Saturday night. During the day, warm temperatures are expected to finally return to Missouri, with high temperatures on Friday reaching the mid 70s and on Saturday reaching the low 80s.
-Kofahl
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Forecasters: Kofahl
Date Issued: 05/07/2026 2300Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Thunderstorms are likely (80%) on Friday, with another chance for rain going into Saturday night.
– Warm temperatures are expected to return Friday and Saturday.
Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon)
Phasing of the weak polar and stronger tropical jet is occurring over Missouri on Thursday afternoon, allowing for convergence in the atmosphere, creating stable conditions leading into Friday. Lingering frontal lift exists across Missouri, along with slight upper-level moisture, which has allowed for the development of fair-weather cumulus clouds on Thursday.
As the jet streak begins to make its way to the east, moving into Friday afternoon, there is a brief separation from the polar jet as it lags behind, allowing for divergence to bloom across, creating favorable conditions for thunderstorm development early Friday night as another cold front passes through the area, helping to initiate storms. Moisture pooling ahead of the cold front’s passage will lead to partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions, as well as dew points surging across Missouri through Friday. CAPE available for further fueling thunderstorms expands along the I-70 corridor across Missouri with moderate values of over 1000 J/kg modeled across the region. Shortwaves begin to move across Missouri, allowing for thunderstorm initiation on Friday night into early Saturday morning. With this risk analysis, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a level 1 out of 5 risk for most of southwestern Missouri for Friday, with the wind and hail threat being greatest for Missouri. Upper-level moisture remains present throughout Saturday as another cold front sits along the Iowa-Missouri border, moving into next week.
Temperatures will warm up moving into the weekend, with Friday reaching the mid 70s and Saturday highs reaching the low 80s for the first taste of summer. With strong winds out of the south and southwest persisting throughout the day.
It has been a pleasure being your Thursday afternoon forecaster, and on behalf of all of the Campus Weather Forecasters, stay weather aware and have a wonderful summer.
– Kofahl
- Thursday Morning Forecast (05/07/2026)
Thursday: Mostly Sunny, 67°F
Thursday Night: A Few Clouds, 49°F
Friday: Chance For Afternoon Thunderstorms (50%), 72°F
Friday Night: Mostly Clear, 49°F
Saturday: Sunny, 81°F
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General Discussion:
A strong low over northern Ontario leaves much of the region in a troughing pattern. A split jet flow will increase moisture and bring in a cold front, allowing storms to develop along the front Friday afternoon. Calm conditions immediately follow, with a clearing sky and lots of sunshine. Temperatures will increase to the low 80s as a southwesterly wind replaces the cold front with plenty of warm air.
-Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes
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Forecasters: Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes
Date Issued: 05/07/2026 1500Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Thunderstorms developing Friday 21Z (50% chance), with a possibility of up to quarter sized hail (20%)
- Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures (81° high) for Saturday
A strong low is situated over northern Ontario, remaining relatively stationary through Sunday. This is placing the majority of the Midwest in a troughing pattern, with an axis extending from northern Wisconsin to northern Texas. While the trough is positively tilted, as the low steadily tracks eastward, it becomes more vertical. As the polar jet rounds the base of the trough, it will begin to phase with the more active subtropical jet. With winds from the northwest advecting towards the region, a developing cold front will bring about the next active weather system Friday afternoon. The subtropical jet will also allow for an increased moisture profile. These ingredients, combined with increased 500mb disturbances will create developing storms around 21Z Friday. While the severe threat will be minimal, skew-T soundings do show a slight dry column above 650mb could allow for the development of up to quarter sized hail.
Once the main system exits the region, calm weather will replace it, as Missouri is finally placed in a ridging pattern with high pressure. A virtually nonexistent moisture profile, lack of a jet stream, and calm conditions at 500mb will lead to a clear sky and calm winds. Temperatures are also expected to increase as winds shift back to the west-southwest.
It’s been an honor to be one of your Thursday morning forecasters, and on behalf of myself, my fellow Campus Weather Forecasters, and my wonderful mentor, this is Keller Mathews, signing off.
Have a great summer!
-Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes