Campus Weather Forecast
- Friday Afternoon Forecast // 22 Nov 24
Campus Weather Forecast
Friday Night: Partly cloudy // Low: 33°F
Saturday: Partly cloudy // High: 48°F
Saturday Night: Increasing clouds // Low: 42°F
Sunday: Mostly cloudy // High: 67°F
Sunday Night: Cloudy // 47°F
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General Discussion:
Colder temperatures will play a big role in the beginning of the weekend, staying relatively the same as they’ve been the last couple of days. These temperatures will start to increase come Sunday, going into the mid-60s. Expect to see clouds in the sky all weekend, slowly increasing with time as we head into fall break.
- Slutter
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Forecasters: Schwent, Slutter, Yost
Date Issued: 11/22/2024 06:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- Temperatures will remain cooler (48°F) Saturday before winds shift to a southerly flow, encouraging warm air advection to warm our area back up Sunday (67°F)
- This weekend will be mostly dry, but a chance of showers (10%) will be a possibly Sunday evening
Currently, clouds are working their way out of our forecast area, courtesy of NW winds through the entire troposphere. This will get rid of the overcast conditions we witnessed today, although clouds will still be a theme we see through the forecast period. There is a surface high pressure system in association with a large upper-level ridge located over southern Missouri, which will be moving ESE with time. This high has been the cause of the northerly winds we’ve been experiencing, which has added a chill to the breeze.
On Saturday, as the surface high pressure propagates ESE with time, winds will shift to a southerly component, which will give Columbia a bit of a warm up (Upper 40s) compared to the trend of the last week. Due to the shift of winds, moisture transport will provide increasing cloud cover as Saturday rolls on. This shift to southerly winds will also prohibit temperatures overnight Saturday from dropping significantly (42°F).
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Rockies over the weekend, promoting cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado by Sunday morning. This, in association with the high pressure system previously mentioned, will strengthen the pressure gradient at the surface which will induce warm air advection. These winds are forecasted to strengthen (20-25mph) out of the south, which will also help promote moisture advection throughout Sunday. By Sunday evening, a shortwave and an associated surface low will be pressing into Missouri. A cold front is draped southwest of the surface low, and will drift through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Ahead of the front, we are expecting to see a low chance of precipitation (10%) with little to no accumulation. Although these katafront showers are a possibility, increasing cloud cover is the primary trend with this front rather than precip.
- Slutter
- Friday Morning Forecast // 22 Nov 24
Campus Weather Forecast
Friday: Morning clouds clearing // High: 47°F
Friday Night: Clear // Low: 30°F
Saturday: Sunny // High: 53°F
Saturday Night: Clear // Low: 40°F
Sunday: Clouds building in the afternoon // High: 65°F
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General Discussion:
Our warmer temperatures are giving way to cooler weather as two low-pressure systems shift in the pattern. Today (Friday) will be around 47°F, with Saturday seeing clearer skies, a low near 30°F, and a high around 53°F. Cooler temps and clouds return Sunday as the bomb cyclone’s effects move in.
-Iffrig
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Forecasters: Collier, Scheerer, Iffrig
Date Issued: 11/22/2024 0900 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
- The tale of two lows will come to an end creating variable weather conditions this weekend.
- Expect generally cooler temperatures with periods of warmth.
As we begin to say bye bye bye to our summer-like temperatures, we will begin to say you’re as cold as ice as cooler temperatures begin to build into the region. Driving this change are the two very potent low pressure systems; one to our east and the bomb cyclone to the west. These two pressure systems however will begin to gradually weaken and return to the general flow of the atmosphere allowing a ridge to build in for a brief moment in time. This ridge will bring with it slightly warmer temperatures compared to what we’ve been having and clearer skies. That being said, this ridge will not last long as the aforementioned bomb cyclone begins to fade, advecting moisture and cooler temperatures back to the region.
Breaking down each day, today (Friday) expect for the temperature to hover right around 47°F. This, however, will hinge on how long the cloud cover will remain in the region. Both the NAM and GFS model runs have the jet stream flowing south but gradually shifting to the east as the day progresses. 850mb level moisture is the primary driving factor for the presence of the clouds that built in overnight, and both models are resolving this moisture being advected out of the region by the early to mid afternoon (12:00 to 5:00 PM). On to Saturday, the previously mentioned ridge will be apparent in all levels of the atmosphere allowing for clear sky conditions for most, if not all of the day. These sky conditions will allow for efficient radiational cooling paving the way for our low temperature to sit around 30°F. On the flip side, this will also be very good for warming allowing for a high on Saturday near 53°F. As the bomb cyclone “detonates” and the aftermath makes its away to the region, expect much cooler temperatures and cloud cover return, and the ridge to gradually return to more zonal atmospheric flow on Sunday. Future shifts should monitor for the effects of the bomb cyclone as the week progresses.
-Iffrig