Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 65
Thursday: Increasing Clouds. High: 92
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy with Thunderstorms Poissible 10-20%. Low: 68
Friday: Decreasing Clouds. High: 94
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 70
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General Discussion:
Above seasonal average temperature trend continue through Friday with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average. Rain chances become possible on Thursday night, but confidence remains particularly low (10-20%) with cloud cover being the main culprit.
– Thee, McCluskey
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Forecasters: Thee, McCluskey
Date Issued: 09/18/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-The above seasonal temperature trend sticks around throughout the remainder of the forecast period.
-Rain chances creep in on Thursday, but remain particularly low.
Current visible satellite imagery is showing a slight increase in upper level clouds, as a weak high-pressure system continues to hover to the east of the CWA. Wednesday high temperatures reached just below the 90 degree mark are expected to continue to climb going into Thursday and Friday.
A ridge currently continues to dominate the midwest portion of the CONUS, and has allowed us to continue to see calm weather conditions. A shortwave trough is positioned overhead of the northern extent of the CONUS, with a long wave trough beginning to dig into the Desert Southwest directly behind it. The aforementioned ridge has allowed for increasing temperatures and plenty of access to sunshine with temperatures continuing to see 10-15 degrees above seasonal (Avg. High: 79) with this trend expected to extend Thursday into Friday alongside strong southerly winds and ongoing WAA at the surface.
The current ridge is expected to move eastward before the region is introduced to a west-east moving flow, with the jet stream being the main influence for this pattern. The shortwave trough that has already been introduced will continue to move northeast of the region, and will present the area with a chance for precipitation on Thursday night. An associated low-pressure system is positioned in alignment with the upper-level low due to the presence of a vertically-stacked system. The low-pressure system is draping a cold front across the central portion of the CONUS. As the low-pressure system continues to move northeast in its occlusion stage, the associated cold front is expected to weaken before passing through the CWA on Thursday night into Friday morning. As the cold front makes it’s way into the area, a shortwave will interact with the airmass alongside a moderate LLJ (25-30+ knts) and storm initiation is expected to occur from Southeastern Kansas all the way into Central Iowa. The usage of CAMs were used to gain a grasp on storm coverage, with a thin moisture and instability axis along the front, the confidence for the CWA to see storms remains particularly low (10-20%). However, if storms are able to continue into central MO, they will reach Columbia in the 00Z to 05Z time-frame. Model soundings depict large amounts of dry air and minimal MLCAPE values of less that 500 J/Kg, furthermore decreasing confidence of storms reaching central MO and Columbia.
-Thee, McCluskey