Tuesday: Cloudy. High: 36°F
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 25°F
Wednesday: Cloudy snow initiating around 6am to 9am. High: 30°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy snow stopping late. Low: 10°F
Thursday: Clouds clearing too mostly cloudy. High: 24°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Starting off the day Tuesday, there might be some brief snow showers, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures will remain below average, the average for the month (45oF highs) dropping through the week. On Wednesday, snowfall will start early in the morning and continue through most of the day. Total snow accumulation amounts from this event will range from 2-4″. Moving into Thursday
Beach
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Beach, Simmons
Date Issued: 11 February 2025 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– A winter weather system will be pushing into the forecast area which could see total snow accumulations of 2-4″.
– Temperatures will be dropping throughout the week which could bring in some hazardous wind chills Thursday.
Technical Discussion
At 300 MB on Tuesday, there is not much disturbance over the forecast area, which will allow for a calmer day. However, as the day progresses, a jet max will start to build as a trough develops to the west over the Rockies. As this system strengthens, short waves will begin to push in around 21Z, which could lead to some disruption. This is supported by the upper-level flow shown by both the SREF and GEFS, which show kinks at 500 MB. These small disturbances may result in some short-lived flurries later Tuesday, but accumulation is not expected.
Building into Wednesday, the models begin to show more uncertainty regarding the strength of the low pushing into the area. Nevertheless, all models agree on a positively tilted trough moving in around 09Z Wednesday. While the system’s intensity remains uncertain, both the NAM and GFS agree that most levels will be saturated starting Tuesday and lasting into late Wednesday when a dry slot begins to push in. The dominant precipitation type for this event will be snow, with a small chance for sleet mixed in. At the surface, there is some moisture advection, but it is not impressive, which will limit total snowfall amounts. This conclusion is supported when looking at soundings, which show a saturated column for most of the day on Wednesday but begin to dry out toward the evening. Based on guidance, predicted snowfall amounts for this system are in the 2-5″ range, with locally higher amounts possible.
Once this system moves through, the developed jet max over the area will start to push off to the east. However, this is not the end of the hazards, as cold temperatures begin to build, bringing hazardous wind chills. These wind chills should be damped in severity a little bit as dry air starts to move into the region allowing for gradual clearing throughout the layers on Thursday. Despite these variables, uncertainty remains higher than preferable for this forecast. Future forecasters should be aware of these variations and should watch for any swings in the temperature profile as new runs come out during the day.
Beach