Friday Night: Clear. Low: 31°F 

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 41°F

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 26°F 

Sunday: Increasing Clouds. High: 53°F

Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 41°F

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General Discussion:

Dry conditions and gusty winds, brought by the passing cold front, will continue throughout tonight through Saturday, prompting an enhanced fire risk for the time period. Temperatures will cool for Saturday, leaving highs below average. A high pressure ridge will make it’s way through the area Sunday morning, with dry, calm conditions expected and temperatures returning to average. However, a low pressure system will bring moisture into the area, leading to the chance for lightprecipitation overnight Sunday into very early Monday morning.

–Scheerer

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Forecasters: Scheerer, Schwent, Collier

Date Issued: 02/28/2025 5:00 PM

Technical Discussion: 

Key messages

• Dry conditions and gusty winds will remain throughout tonight through Saturday causing an enhanced fire risk.
• The cold front passing through tonight will cool temperatures down.
• A low pressure system will come into the area late Sunday, bringing the chance for light precipitation

An elevated fire risk is in place for the forecast area with the National Weather Service issuing a Red Flag Warning until 8 p.m. tonight. Although the warning is issued until tonight, the enhanced risk will remain throughout the Saturday. This is due to the cold front that is currently making it’s way through mid-Missouri that will bring cooler temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds. Winds are expected to reach 10-15 mph throughout the day with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Conditions are also forecasted to be very dry throughout Saturday with relative humidity values near 30%. Along with the fire risk, the cold front is expected shift winds to the north west, allowing for strong cold air advection from the north, cooling down temperatures for Saturday. Afternoon highs are expected to be below average (average is 50°F), reaching the lower 40s.

Conditions are expected to stay dry for the first half of Sunday as a high pressure ridge will make it’s way into the area early Sunday morning. This will allow for winds to shift to the south, and warm air advection to become prevalent. This will warm temperatures back up to around average with highs excepted to be in the low 50s. Enhanced fire risk isn’t expected for Sunday as wind speeds will not be strong enough to support fire spread. However, it will continue to be dry with relative humidity values reaching near 30% again. The dry conditions will not last for the rest of the day though.

A low pressure system will make it’s way from the central plains throughout the day Sunday, bringing moisture with it. The system is expected to make it’s way into the forecast area around 12z Monday, however the moisture will move in ahead of the low (around 0z Monday). This, along with the vorticity and lift associated with the low, will bring the chance for precipitation overnight Sunday into very early Monday morning. The timing of the precipitation is uncertain with the NAM expecting it to move more slowly and lingering (lasting from around 9z to 15z). While the NAM 3K has the precipitation moving faster and only lasting around 6z to 9z Monday. With this, the models are in agreement that we are expecting light accumulation values with trace to .05 in of rainfall expected. Looking post forecast period, future forecasters should be mindful and continue to monitor the trough associated with the low pressure system.

-Scheerer