Tuesday Night: Storms switching to flurries overnight. Low: 31°F
Wednesday: Light flurries in AM. Windy. High: 34°F
Wednesday Night: Windy. Clouds clearing. Low: 24°F
Thursday: Clouds building. High: 46°F
Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 38°F
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General Discussion:
A powerful mid-latitude cyclone continues to move through the region today. Storms, some strong, are expected into the evening hours mainly posing a threat for strong winds (30-45 kts), and potentially small hail (< 0.5 in). Overnight, rain is expected to transition to light flurries, though accumulation is not expected with the exception of grassy spots caused by elevated ground temperatures indicated by soil temperatures around 50 degrees. Wind gusts are forecast to ramp up (30+ mph) which may introduce decreased visibility into the early morning hours Wednesday. Clouds will then clear throughout the day into Wednesday night. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing during this time with wind chills falling into the teens. Thursday, clouds will begin to move into the area as a ridge builds and temperatures increase.
-Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
Date Issued: 03/04/2025 5:50 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Scattered storms (some strong) are expected this afternoon into the evening. Main hazards include winds up to 40 kts and small hail
- Storms will give way to snow in the form of light flurries overnight tonight, continuing through Wednesday morning. Accumulation is not expected due to warm ground temperatures. Clouds clear in the afternoon.
- Along with, and following the wintry precipitation, strong gradient winds are expected with sustained winds greater than 25 mph and gusts 45-50 mph overnight tonight and throughout the day Wednesday.
Thunderstorms: Our potent mid-latitude cyclone continues its progression eastward today. Currently the surface low is centered over west-central Missouri, just east of the Kansas City Metro and is expected to push directly over the area tonight. Storms have re-initiated south of the low in a cold-core setup, streaking NE. These storms are not expected to meet severe criteria. MLCAPE values are forecast to hang around 100 J/kg or less with MUCAPE lackluster as well at < 200 J/kg. Further, shear values are to remain unfavorable along with a chaotic wind profile.
Snowfall: As the storms move north and east, they will generally weaken with time, albeit still posing a risk for sub-severe wind gusts. Following the passage of these storms, a brief lull will give way to light flurries as the surface low moves past. The mature cyclone is expected to continue occluding, and moisture wrapping around the backside of the low center will interact with extremely cold dry air. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient will encourage sustained winds of 25 mph or greater, along with strong to powerful gusts of up to 45 – 50 mph. The combination of these winds, with light, very dry flurries may introduce decreased visibility overnight and into the morning hours on Wednesday. Snowfall is not expected to accumulate due to ground temperatures in the upper 40s. Additionally, cold temperatures associated with the low pressure system will draw wind chills into the teens Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
Ridging and warm up: On Thursday the system will finally move out of the area and bring a brief ridge of high pressure into the region. While clouds will clear Wednesday night, the approach of another system will cause clouds to build back in on Thursday along with slightly warmer temperatures. Future shifts should keep track of the next system as lee-cyclogenesis is forecast later Thursday afternoon. Current guidance suggests a potential increase in precipitation chances as the ridge moves out of the forecast area.
-Brucker
Tuesday: Rain High: 53°F
Tuesday Night: Cloudy with chances of snow Low: 31°F
Wednesday: AM snow showers. High: 34°F
Wednesday Night: Clearing Low: 24°F
Thursday: Clear and Windy. High: 48°F
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General Discussion:
Today Columbia will see rain (0.25-0.75 in) with possible rumbles of thunder included. Overnight tonight into Wednesday morning a dusting of snow only on grassy surfaces is expected. A windy Wednesday will be accompanied by clouds which will stay in the area until Wednesday night making way for a clear Thursday.
-Malone, Beach
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Forecasters: Malone, Beach
Date Issued: 03/04/2025 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Rain during the day Tuesday (0.25-0.75 in) with possible thunder
- Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will see a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces
- Wednesday winds around 25 mph with gusts up to 45-50 mph
An upper-level trough is moving through the lower Great Plains and Missouri bringing upper-level divergence with diffluence to the east of our area. As the low makes its way overhead an abundance of vorticity along with the upper-level divergence is encouraging for precipitation. A low-level jet on the leeward side of the low is transporting moisture from the Gulf of America into the Great Plains further fueling precipitation chances. Rain and possible thunder would be from the wrap around of our low with a 100 percent chance of rain ranging from 0.25-0.75 of an inch for today. The most severe the area will get will be rumbles of thunder. This is due to a severe lack of surface based CAPE and instability.
Near the surface, temperatures will be dropping to around 32 degrees Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This is caused from cold air advection moving into our area that is trailing behind the low. The moisture will stick around allowing for a dusting of a snow but no effect to roadways is expected as ground temperatures will be too warm for accumulation. Strong winds (25 mph with gusts of 45 mph) associated with the cold air advection and a strong pressure gradient may cause visibility issues with blowing snow.
Following the precipitation events, Thursday is expected to be clear with increasing clouds in the afternoon. A ridge moving in and leeward cyclogenesis on the Rockies will form Thursday evening which future forecast shifts will further monitor.
-Malone, Beach