Thursday: Increasing Clouds. High: 48°F 

Thursday Night: Cloudy. Low: 38°F 

Friday: Decreasing Clouds. High: 67°F

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. High: 34°F 

Saturday: Mostly Clear. Low: 52°F

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General Discussion:

Wind speeds finally reside to a light breeze today, transitioning from the strong gusts we experienced yesterday. Expect warmer temperatures to return today, breaking above average (42F), and remaining above average for the rest of this forecast period.

-Bivens

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Forecasters: Bean, Bivens

Date Issued: 03/06/2025 16:00Z

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:

• Winds associated with the strong low pressure system that moved through yesterday die down today. Saying this, powerful upper level winds will lasso clouds accompanying a low pressure system over the southwest into our region.
• Temperatures will gradually make their way into the upper 60’s during our forecast period aided by southerly winds and warm air advection.

Yet another period of barotropic flow is expected for this Thursday morning forecast, serving as a pleasant change from what those living in the Columbia area witnessed over the past couple of days. The mid-latitude cyclone that brought us storms on Tuesday, and later wrap-around snow on Wednesday, has completely moved out of our area and has brought any kindred clouds with it. Saying this, a jet streak dipping down into the plains region today will introduce impressively fast upper level winds and divergence aloft. Missouri will be sitting directly under a jet max early Friday morning, potentially creating some clear air turbulence impactful for the aviation industry. To attest to any model discrepancies, the GFS is introducing much more liberal runs, delineating from the more reserved nature of the NAM. The NAM remains certain that our weather will be slightly calmer than what the GFS is expecting, but is implying that rain might impact us Friday night, which we do not believe to be accurate.

Proving noteworthy is the prevalent atmospheric spin concentrated over the Four Corners region on Friday. This aggregation of vorticity will continue to slide eastward, but will not serve as a weather-maker during our forecast period. The mentioned mass of spin is associated with a bowling ball low pressure system, dominant enough to be seen at all crucial levels. This aforementioned vorticity, paired with modest moisture at both 700 and 850mb will initiate varying forms of cloudy conditions for Thursday and Friday. While omega values remain sufficient enough for cloud formation, they fall short when aiming for any rain production. On this same train of thought, PWAT equivalents maintain an average of approximately .5″, but if any rain were to fall, it would inevitably succumb to evaporation to a fairly dry atmospheric profile.

A surface high moves out this evening and is replaced with a low pressure system bringing unimpressive showers along the Iowa/Missouri border tomorrow. Solenoids suggest plentiful warm air advection Friday, explaining the significant warm-up and 24-hour temperature change (Thursday High: 48F; Friday High: 67F). After the low’s eastward propagation, a secondary high pressure system plants stakes into mid-Missouri, launching a period of north/north-easterly winds Saturday. The clockwise flow will coax dry and cooler winds into our area, providing a mostly clear sky and a dip in the high temperature. While this forecast shift is not fortunate enough to discuss much active weather, the next shift should focus in on the slight chance for rain on Sunday.

-Bivens