Wednesday Morning Forecast – March 19, 2025
Wednesday: Cloudy, windy. High: 65°F
Wednesday Night: Evening sprinkles possible, windy. Low: 33°F
Thursday: Sunny: 50°F
Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 38°F
Friday: Increasing clouds, breezy. High 63°F
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General Discussion:
Wednesday morning will see drizzle, with accumulation values under 0.10 in. The rest of the day will be cloudy and windy, with gusts of up to 32 mph. Slight precipitation is expected in the early evening hours, and the sprinkles are not expected to turn into snow. Thursday’s conditions are sunny and windy, with high temperatures in the low 50s leading to a cool, clear evening. Clouds will increase on Friday, with a high near 63°F.
Huebner
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Forecasters: Nightingale, Huebner
Date Issued: 03/19/2025 09:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- There is a possibility for precipitation Wednesday evening
- Winds will be strong through the end of the week, with gusts reaching 32 mph
The GFS and the NAM were used for this forecast due to their consensus in precipitation accumulation. As of Wednesday at 12Z, Columbia is in an area of wind divergence at 300 mb paired with SW flow which will contribute to increased moisture throughout the day and is the main factor for the morning drizzle seen across the state. The upper-level trough moves through the area by Friday at 00Z followed by a slight ridging pattern along with winds shifting to the W which will contribute to a calmer weather pattern for the end of the week.
At 500 mb, a counterclockwise circulation passes over Mid-Missouri with a vort max evident at 21Z Wednesday bringing lift and rising air with it. Winds at this level are powerful, reaching up to 80 mph. While the circulation moves out of the area Thursday at 21Z, there is a well-defined shortwave trough Friday at 21Z which could lead to some incoming weather activity for the weekend. Moisture patterns of significant values (>90% RH) at 700 mb are vertically stacked beneath the aforementioned vorticity at 21Z further enforcing the possibility for active weather at that time.
After the vorticity and RH moves out around Thursday at 09Z, temperatures will begin to fall following the passage of the low-pressure system. At the surface, winds remain strong, reaching up to 32 mph. The GEFS plumes as well as a GFS sounding show a minute precip accumulation (0.05 in) for 21Z Wednesday, courtesy of the previously mentioned vorticity and RH. While the low temperature is expected to be close to freezing overnight Wednesday, the upper-air conditions as well as the above-freezing soil temperature will keep the precipitation liquid. Future forecasters should note that no big changes are evident for Friday, but they should expect persisting winds with warming temperatures for the weekend.
Nightingale, Chirpich, Huebner