Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. low: 36°F
Friday : Partly Sunny. High: 63°F
Friday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 36°F
Saturday: Increasing Clouds. High: 63°F
Saturday Night: Cloudy. 90% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low: 50F
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General Discussion:
Warmer and breezy conditions will be the story for Friday bringing a risk for fire danger. By Saturday evening, Moisture should be increasing promoting a risk for showers and embedded thunderstorms. An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out
– Franciscus
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Forecasters: Franciscus, Alcorn
Date Issued: 03/20/2025, 22:00Z
As of 22Z UTC, Mid-Missouri is experiencing temperatures in the mid to upper 40s with significant dewpoint depressions, exceeding 30 degrees. Aloft, the upper trough from yesterday’s severe weather event over the Midwest has continued to amplify as it traverses the East Coast, with Columbia feeling the cold air advection on the backside of the system. A surface high is parked over central Texas with Missouri experiencing northerly low-level flow. This will keep the sky clear through the early overnight hours before return flow commences. High clouds will slowly advect into the region as the upper flow backs to a more westerly component. Temperatures should plunge after the sun sets before gradually leveling off as the winds turn out of the south and the clouds move in. Expect lows in the mid 30s.
During the day Friday, the surface anticyclone should shift northeast causing the low-level flow in Missouri to veer to a southwesterly direction. The pressure gradient should tighten allowing sustained winds to approach 20 knots. Given the angle of the flow and the magnitude, mixing should be very efficient when considering the additional effect of downsloping off of the Ozarks. Dew points should only be slightly higher than Thursday with relative humidity values expected to be below 30%. Due to the relatively dry fuels across the region, combined with these conditions, erratic fire behavior will be a concern. Consider burning a different day and use extreme caution with open flames. Highs should be in the mid-60s given a partly sunny sky. Clouds should decrease overnight Friday allowing temperatures to drop to the mid 30s again.
On Saturday, a positively tilted trough currently over the Pacific is expected to shift into the high plains. Lee cyclogenesis should occur by mid-morning which will kick start the warm (and moist) air advection regime. The low should deepen as it tracks eastward, allowing moisture to be pulled from the gulf into the Southern Plains. A shortwave embedded within the stronger flow will traverse the I-70 corridor reaching Mid-Missouri by 3Z Sunday. Dew points should gradually rise as the nose of the 50-knot low level jet is directed squarely at Mid-Missouri. Although a sharp inversion will develop after surface heating diminishes, continued moistening of the profile should allow several hundred (200-700) Joules of elevated CAPE to develop. This instability, combined with sufficient shear from the shortwave, will promote the development of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to initiate as a warm front lifts northward. Given the elevated nature of the convection, the severe potential should be minimal but a few hailstones up to quarter sized cannot be ruled out. Precipitation should continue throughout the night before a cold front sweeps the moisture out of the region Sunday morning. With a fairly saturated profile and surface dew points around 50, expect Columbia to pick up between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of rain. More rain is possible if thunderstorms are more widespread than currently forecast compared to stratiform rain. Temperatures should only fall to the low 50s due to the strong warm air advection. Future forecasters should continue to monitor the potential for strong convection during this period as more model data becomes available.
– Franciscus