Friday, April 4th, 2025 Evening Forecast, 5:00 PM CDT
Friday Night: Cloudy with a 90% of showers. Low: 44°F
Saturday: Cloudy with a 70% chance of showers. High: 48°F
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 36°F
Sunday: Chance of morning flurries with clouds decreasing throughout the day . High: 48°F
Sunday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 35°F
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General Discussion: Showers will continue throughout the late night hours of Friday through Saturday afternoon. As the lower levels becomes drier, mid level clouds will remain becoming cloudy by Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will begin to cool as the upper level flow turns northerly the upper level low tracks further eastward. Models are in disagreement on if lower level moisture will be present, but most models are in agreement that there will not be any measurable precipitation by Sunday morning. Cloud cover will begin to diminish by Sunday afternoon, becoming mostly clear by the nighttime hours.
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Forecasters: Scheerer, Schwent
Date Issued: 04/04/2025 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Showers will persist throughout tonight and Saturday afternoon
- Slight chance of flurries Sunday morning.
- Temperatures will cool throughout the weekend as cloud cover decreases
A deep, upper-level trough is currently situated over Arizona, leading to the showers that the forecast area is experiencing as of 21z. These conditions will continue into the overnight hours of tonight as the trough will continue to supply the area with sufficient moisture in the mid to lower levels of the atmosphere. PWAT values, according to the HRRR, will remain near 1.3 inches, leading to increased confidence in precipitation throughout the night.
Showers will continue during the early morning hours of Saturday, with lower level moisture remaining through to 21z Saturday. PWAT values will decrease over time, according to the HRRR. Low-level moisture will begin to move further south by 0z on Sunday, leaving the forecast area with cloudy skies. However, if the track of the low slows during this time, moisture could linger, leading to more rainfall during the day on Saturday. The models agree though that rain will tapper off by 3z Sunday, with cloudy skies remaining during the overnight hours.
As the lead side of the trough begins to exit the forecast area, our upper-level flow will begin to turn northerly, causing cooler air to move into the area. As temperatures begin to cool, there is a nonzero chance to see light flurries early Sunday morning with the 540 thickness line reaching near the forecast area by 15z Sunday. This is due to the GFS, which is uncharacteristically more moist near the surface. This trend continues till 0z as the model is resolving precipitation during this time. However, the NAM, NAM 3k, and HRRR do show that there will not be sufficient moisture near the surface to cause any type of precipitation. With this discrepancy, it is unlikely that there will be a large chance of precipitation during the morning and afternoon hours. Models return to agreement that cloud cover will continue to diminish throughout the evening hours, becoming mostly clear by Sunday night as moisture exits the area.
-Scheerer