Friday Night: Decreasing Clouds | Low: 40°F 

Saturday: Mostly Sunny | High: 70°F

Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy | Low: 55°F 

Sunday: Partly Cloudy | High: 83°F

Sunday Night: Increasing Clouds | Low: 53°F 

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General Discussion:

In contrast with the past few days, the weekend will be considerably warmer. From a high of 57 Friday to low 80s Sunday, this warming will be driven by strong winds in the lower atmosphere. A stray shower can not be ruled out Sunday night into Monday, as a cold front passes and cools temperatures.

– Schwent

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Forecasters: Schwent, Scheerer

Date Issued: 04/11/2025 5:30 pm

Technical Discussion: 

Key messages

• Clouds will move out of the area overnight
• Temperatures will rapidly warm over the weekend, with low 80s by Sunday afternoon
• A cold front will pass overnight into Monday morning, bringing with it increasing clouds and cooling temperatures

A well-established upper ridge is translating east across the CONUS, northerly flow in association with an upper jet streak is ushering in this ridge. A surface (sfc) high over our forecast area in association with this jet streak will move SE with time, and as this occurs, southerly flow will begin. WAA will drive a substantial warming trend on both Saturday and Sunday. The high will jump from the upper 50s today, to 80s Sunday due to this highly robust warm air advection regime.

A shortwave trough in the pacific northwest will induce lee cyclogenesis near Nebraska, leading to a robust pressure gradient between the sfc high in the southeast, and the sfc low in the upper plains. This will lead to unusually robust WAA, and rapidly warming temperatures. To put this in perspective the LLJ in association with this low will be 60-70kts, and CoMo will be on the nose of it. This is above the 99.5th percentile of low-level jets for this time of year according to the NAEFS. The cold front associated with this low will pass overnight Sunday, marking an end to the rapid warmup.

There is unusually high uncertainty in SREF for the Monday morning low due to FROPA timing uncertainties, however, the global ensembles (EPS, GEFS) are both in remarkably good agreement with the lower 50s. We have elected to go with this as deterministic guidance (ECMWF, GFS, NAM) also agrees, and the SREF means for the past four runs fit nicely into this range.

Given the warm air and moisture present as this front passes, despite a lack of additional forcing, and lackluster moisture up the profile, there is a non-zero chance of a shower or two. As a result, a 10% chance of precip has been added to account for this unlikely scenario.

-Schwent