Wednesday, April 16, 2025 05:00 p.m. CDT
Wednesday Night: Rain possible. Low: 56°F
Thursday: Decreasing Clouds. Windy High: 79°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 68°F
Friday: Increasing Clouds, chance of showers. High: 84°F
Friday Night: Chance of showers overnight. Low: 54°F
General Discussion:
- As the week progresses we are likely to see scattered thunderstorms popping up Thursday morning and continuing into Friday, where the clouds will break and Columbia will have a brief rest before storms build back up in the early evening, with the chance of severe weather possible.
Hayes
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Forecasters: Hayes, Slutter
Date Issued: 16 April 2025 // 05:00 PM
Key Messages:
- Temperatures are expected to increase with the winds to the South and radiative cooling shuttered by consecutive nights overcast by mid to high level clouds.
- Moisture advection from the gulf brought by the LLJ will interact with the area, bringing thunderstorms in the morning and scattered showers throughout the rest of the day Thursday.
- Friday afternoon into the evening, a system is expected to broach Mid-Missouri with the potential for severe weather, propagating off of an impactful cold front that will drop Friday night temperatures into the low 50s.
Technical Discussion:
Current satellite imagery indicates a building moisture over Missouri which will aid in the overnight thunderstorms that will linger into Thursday morning. Elevated K and TT values maintain the idea that these storms will be elevated and lightning will be present. Due to the intrusion of a few dry pockets close to the surface, these storms will likely produce less than ½ inch of rainfall amounts. The system will pass Thursday morning, cooling the atmosphere and creating the beginning of a cap that will play a crucial role in the next notion of weather occurring Thursday night. There are several prospects desirable to the formation of storms Thursday night, but due to strong CIN values and a dry slot occurring below the moisture layer, we do not expect rainfall, however the potential for a rogue storm to appear is between 10 and 20 percent. If storms are to persist, their impacts would be marginal, with the main hazard being small hail, as outlined by the SPC Day-2 outlook being 5% for the forecast area.
Friday morning, clouds are expected to thin as temperatures rise due to southerly winds and prefrontal warming, as we are predicted to exceed low 80s. Moisture and instability grows throughout the day as dew points increase, pressed forward by the LLJ. The CIN values are expected to decrease to more manageable levels in the early evening Friday around 00Z, and storms are expected to fire directly after, parcels being able to shoot up with the increased proximity of the LCL and the LFC. The dry air in the mid-levels working with the moderate omega output and excessive TT values will maintain the prediction of moderate to severe storms overnight on Friday. It is expected to accumulate ¾ to an inch of rain. While some model skew-Ts indicate a marginal risk for tornadic activity, this is due to a deep layer shear in excess of 50 kts and Effective SRH values near 200m^2/s^2, without taking into account lackluster CAPE values and an EHI of 0.2, indicating that we have great stability at the surface portrayed by the meager LLRs (< 5) that will inhibit the storm from becoming robust.
Future forecasters should note that these values are subject to change closer to the date, and the risk for severe weather may increase. They should also be aware that a cold front will be coming through late Friday night that will drop temperatures in excess of thirty degrees.
Hayes