Wednesday, April 16, 2025 10:00 CDT

Wednesday: Increasing Clouds. High: 72°F 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, chance of showers. Low: 56°F 

Thursday: Decreasing Clouds. Windy High: 79°F 

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 68°F 

Friday: Increasing Clouds, chance of showers. High: 78°F 

General Discussion:   

• The latter half of the week will see warming temperatures and increased clouds. Showers are possible on Wednesday evening and Friday afternoon, although the total amounts of precipitation accumulation remain below 0.4.” Breezy conditions are expected in the afternoons, with gusts up to 25 mph. Nighttime lows are in the low-mid 60s, and daytime  highs remain in the upper 70s.

Huebner

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Forecasters: Nightingale, Huebner, Chirpich

Date Issued: 16 April 2025 // 10:00 AM  

Key Messages:   

• Temperatures and cloud cover will increase Wednesday due to a ridging pattern sticking around through Thursday. 
• The LLJ will provide an increase in moisture beginning Friday and persisting throughout the weekend. 

Technical Discussion:  

The GFS, NAM were used for this forecast as well as GEFS plumes for their agreement in precipitation accumulation.

Wednesday

As of Wednesday at 12Z, split flow in mid-Missouri moves out as the subtropical jet dominates at 250 mb leaving behind a subtle ridge. This will lead to warmer temperatures and clear conditions for Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Circulation at 500 mb briefly enters the forecast region on Wednesday at 21Z, and moves out by Thursday at 18Z indicating a possibility for cloud cover and increased wind values. High RH values (>80%) pair with rising motion at 700 mb beginning Wednesday at 18Z and are gone by Thursday at 18Z, allowing for cloud cover and possible showers for Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. WAA is also associated with the higher RH values, which could mean a possible temperature increase for later in the day on Wednesday. Analyzed surface maps strengthen this probability, indicating the possibility for a few isolated showers on Wednesday night (21Z) into early on Thursday morning (18Z).  

Thursday-Friday: 

Winds at 250 mb shift from west to south by Friday, pulling moisture from the Gulf for Friday. Wind divergence early Friday through the end of the forecast pairs with a negatively-tilted trough deepening in the Rockies, strengthening chances for precipitation over the weekend. Circulation at 500 mb moves through the forecast area on Thursday from 09Z-15Z and re-enters the area on Friday at 18Z, sticking around through the end of the forecast period allowing for a possibly rainy weekend. Alternating bouts of WAA and CAA at 700 mb indicate the possibility for a stationary front on Thursday at 18Z to settle over the Central Plains through the end of the period. Persistence forecasting is beneficial due to the previously mentioned stationary front possibility. An influx of the LLJ on Thursday at 12Z provides moisture for the area and is followed by a wind shift to the west on Friday morning (12Z). The notable RH values (>90%) will persist through the end of the forecast period, which will allow for a greater possibility for Friday cloud cover. On Friday at 18Z, a uniform band of precipitation moves through the area and lingers through the end of the forecast period. GEFS plumes display a mean precipitation total of 0.4 inches for Friday. Future forecasters should take note of the lingering precipitation chances for the weekend and what it could mean for weekend activities. 

• Nightingale, Huebner