Monday: Partly Cloudy. High: 85°F   

Monday Night: Cloudy. Low: 64°F   

Tuesday: Chance of Rain. High: 71°F   

Tuesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 59°F   

Wednesday: Mostly Rain. High: 73°F   

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General Discussion:   

The day 1 convective outlook has Columbia inside of a slight risk. While the atmosphere is primed for severe weather some key ingredients are missing, such as forcing for ascent. Therefore, the weather we intend to receive is to be non-severe.  What is prevalent is the low-level jet moving through indicating the expectation for rainfall. Over the next few days Columbia will receive rainfall totals under a half of an inch. 

• Nobles 

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Forecasters: Nobles, Elston, Schifferdecker  

Date Issued: 04/28/2025 10:00 AM CST   

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:   

• Mondays forecasted warm up of 85°F is close to record breaking (88°F).  

• Tuesday and Wednesday have chances of rain with Tuesday’s chance carrying possibility of thunder. While Wednesday has overall more persistent rainfall.  

• This rainy weather seems to continue into Thursday and should be noted by future forecasters.  

Current satellite imagery depicts thinning clouds over central Missouri. Additional clouds are streaming in from the southwest, leading to partly cloudy conditions today. Southerly flow and WAA will warm temperatures into the mid 80s, well above the average high of 71°F. Today’s high will get close to the record high of 88°F but will likely not break this record. Gusty winds will be present today, with sustained winds near 15-20mph, gusting up to 30mph. Humidity values will be near 70% as dew points rise into the upper 60s, leading to somewhat uncomfortable conditions for late April.  

Overnight, chances for rain will increase as a cold front moves through. The highest chance for precipitation is early Tuesday morning around 09Z-11Z. The SPC Convective Outlook has Columbia in a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow morning, but large impacts are not expected. Model soundings indicate surface cape near 1300 J/Kg and a totals total value of 52 on Tues 09Z . However, a lack of vorticity in the mid-level will reduce forcing for ascent and limit the strength of thunderstorms. Lower-level moisture will be present during this time frame and bring the chance for a brief shower, with some thunder possible. The upper-level jet will remain to the north of the region from late tonight to early Tuesday morning and keep the majority of severe weather impacts to the north. Following the passage of this cold front, temperatures will cool back to near seasonal in the low 70s. Additional rain chances are possible during the day, as there will be plentiful moisture and decent mid-level vorticity. These rain chances will be scattered in nature and result in around two-tenths of an inch of precipitation Tuesday.  

On Wednesday, a deep, positively tilted trough will eject eastward and bring another chance for precipitation. A line of vorticity will move through around Wednesday 09Z, correlating with a surface warm front. This front will bring early morning precipitation chances, with additional precipitation near a tenth of an inch. Abundant moisture will be present from Wednesday until the end of the forecast period. A surface cold front will move through the area Wednesday afternoon around 00Z Thursday, bringing additional rain chances. Throughout the day Wednesday, mid-level vorticity and upper-level divergence will be present, providing forcing for thunderstorm development. Future forecasting shifts should monitor the frontal passages on Wednesday to refine precipitation amounts and timing.  

• Schifferdecker