Tuesday: Clear. High: 72°F 

Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 53°F 

Wednesday: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. High: 68°F 

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. Low: 54°F 

Thursday: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. Low: 71°F 

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General Discussion: 

Starting off the week, the weather should remain relatively calm for Tuesday. However, as we progress through the day, clouds will start to build in before rain chances return for the rest of the week. These rain chances won’t be too significant, being widely scattered and remaining pretty light. 

-Beach 

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Forecasters: Malone, Beach 

Date Issued: 05/06/2025 10:00 AM CST 

Technical Discussion: 

Key Message: 

Showers will return to the area by Wednesday. 

Starting off the week on Tuesday, the sky should remain relatively clear throughout the day thanks in part to an upper-level blocking pattern. That quasi-omega blocking pattern, while still present, is starting to push out of the forecasting area through the day. As that blocking pushes out later Tuesday, more unstable weather will be allowed back into Missouri. The first signs of instability returning into the area are Wednesday at 09z, when PVA into the Missouri-Arkansas border could start to promote some lifting overnight. Thus, overnight tonight there could be some clouds that build in over mid-Missouri. 

However, moving further into Wednesday, that same PVA starts to strengthen as it starts to cause some shortwave disturbances at 500 MB. These shortwaves, associated with the PVA, should also aid in providing ample forcing for ascent, which will aid in our rain chances for the week. To add onto that story, there is a deep moist layer permeating both 700 MB and 850 MB, so any storms that are to fire will have sufficient moisture to latch onto. But with CAPE only around 100 J/kg, most of the convection will remain as showers with a couple rumbles of thunder possible. Moving down to the surface, a warm front pushes up into our forecasting area, stalling just before its pass. This will be another factor that could promote the rain for the week, as convergence along that boundary could produce tracking storms. Thus, while extremely high rainfall amounts aren’t expected (~0.12” for Wednesday), some areas could experience higher local values. 

This rainfall should continue through Thursday as that boundary continues to sit over the area. However, nearing the end of the forecasting period, the moisture starts to clear out across all levels. Thus, future forecasters should watch the cloudy conditions as the atmosphere becomes more zonal and stable. 

-Beach