Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 66°F
Thursday: Scattered Showers (50%). High: 89°F
Thursday Night: Scattered Showers (50%). Low: 65°F
Friday: Cloudy. High: 83°F
Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 62°F
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General Discussion:
Current thunderstorm development off to the west is expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours before it reaches Columbia. Increased rain chances (50%) tomorrow into Friday morning. A slight cool down for this weekend is expected with highs just slightly above average (80°F ).
- Brickler, Latlip, Magnuson, Wernsman
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Forecasters: Brickler, Latlip, Magnuson, Wernsman
Date Issued: 09/17/2025 2200Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Thunderstorm development is expected to dissipate in the coming hours.
- 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday.
- Temperatures will cool slightly, reaching near the average of 80 degrees by the end of the week.
Satellite imagery and radar show scattered thunderstorm development west of Columbia due to slightly enhanced low-level moisture convergence in western Missouri. The lower-level moisture gradient has a relatively sharp cutoff, causing these thunderstorms to deteriorate as they slowly move northeast. Rain chances remain low (10%) as we move throughout the night. With current dewpoints in the mid-50s and minimal cloud cover, our temperatures will drop into the mid-60s overnight.
The Omega Block setup is starting to deteriorate as an upper-level trough, currently situated over the upper Great Plains, begins to deepen, creating pockets of divergence aloft at 00Z on Friday. This was responsible for our warmer-than-average temperatures (above 80 degrees) over the past couple of days. The associated surface low is situated over Nebraska and is moving to the northeast, with a cold front draped down through central kansas. On Thursday afternoon, the low will begin to deepen as the cold front moves east, creating a slight cool-down with milder temperatures. The 500mb level is showing shortwave disturbances along the leeward side of the trough at the same time, increasing thunderstorm chances to 50%. However, coverage looks widely scattered, with probabilistic guidance showing a 25% chance of more than 0.25 inches of rain through 03Z Friday. CAMs are in agreement about the scattered nature of the storms; however, timing is still an issue. We are not able to say exactly when storms will enter our area, but expect them sometime during the evening hours on Thursday night. The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds, with DCAPE values showing approximately 1000 J/kg.
Friday’s temperatures will be milder and closer to seasonal averages (80 degrees) as the low and associated cold front fully pass through. Clouds will remain persistent, associated with impressive moisture values in the mid-levels. This will keep our temperatures for Friday on the mild side, in the mid-80s. A spotty shower or two cannot be ruled out, but chances remain slim (10%). Clouds will begin to decrease as our main trough exits our region, dropping our temperatures to the low-60s. Future forecast shifts should look for another round of showers on Saturday for the Mizzou game as another trough slides through.
- Brickler, Latlip, Magnuson, Wernsman
Wednesday Morning Forecast
Wednesday: Mostly Sunny.High: 92°F
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 66°F
Thursday: Cloudy, Showers likely (60%). High: 89°F
Thursday Night: Cloudy, Showers possible (20%). Low: 68°F
Friday: Decreasing clouds.85°F
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General Discussion:
Clouds increase by Wednesday with showers becoming more probable by Thursday afternoon (60%). Clouds stick around into Friday along with a slight cool down into the weekend with highs in the mid 80s, still slightly above average for this time of the year.
- Nightingale, Halter, Wyrick
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Forecasters: Nightingale, Halter, Wyrick
Date Issued: 09/17/2025 9:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Relative Humidity increasing along with clouds Thursday increasing probability of showers (60%).
- Slightly cooler air moving in following a trough coming in from the west (about 5-10° cooler than previously).
The GFS Models were used because of their lack of moisture bias.
Wednesday
Missouri is currently experiencing a NW flow with weak upper level winds, indicating a relatively dry atmosphere. A trough located to the west begins moving towards the central plains, bringing along with it wind divergence aloft. Relative humidity at 700 mb increases Wednesday mid morning (70%) indicating increasing cloud cover for the area. In the lower levels, winds shift from NW around Wednesday at 15Z with Southerly flow remaining until the end of the period, which signifies moisture and warmer air.
Thursday
Around 06Z, a relatively neutral trough from the west plains moves into Colombia enhancing the existence of a baroclinic atmosphere. Positive circulation at 500 mb entering from the west accompanies the trough providing favorable conditions for precipitation later in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values (>75%) increase starting Thursday indicating enhanced chances of precipitation for Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. At 03Z on thursday, vertical velocity is more abundant in the area. When coupled with the trough at the 700 mb level, precipitation is likely at this time. It is important to note that the low is positioned to the Northwest of Missouri, so it is likely a pretty weak system that Missouri is experiencing residual effects from such as cloud cover, showers, etc. The GFS soundings indicate precipitation patch Thursday afternoon and evening with a saturated atmosphere and PWATs around 1.5”. Rain chances will be the greatest starting Thursday at 06Z and persisting through Friday at 15Z with about 0.2” expected.
Friday
A slight cool down is indicated by the CAA succeeding the shortwave that moved through Missouri overnight. Relative Humidity values in the upper levels, indicated by a 12Z sounding on Friday, show the possibility for remaining cloud cover. Temperature imaging at the surface reveals rain cooled air with highs in the mid 80s, about a 10 degree cool down from the previous week. Future forecasters should note that while a slight cool down follows the rain, models also suggest WAA moving into the area for the later parts of the weekend which could mean the atmosphere is heating up again.
- Nightingale, Halter, Wyrick