Monday Night: Increasing cloud cover. Low: 60°F  

Tuesday: Chance of scattered showers. High: 70°F  

Tuesday Night. Clearing skies late. Low: 48°F  

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 73°F  

Wednesday Night: Clear: 48°F

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General Discussion:  

A cold front currently in northwestern Missouri is expected to move through Mid-Missouri overnight into Tuesday morning. Small chance of showers are expected Tuesday morning associated with the cold front. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will be in Mid-Missouri Wednesday.

– Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston

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Forecasters: Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston

Date Issued: 10/06/2025 5:00 PM CST  

Technical Discussion:  

Key Messages:  

• A cold front will pass through tonight, bringing cooler temperatures with a chance of showers.
• Cool down is expected in the next two days after the cold front passes, but clearer skies will be in Mid-Missouri by Wednesday morning.

Currently at the 250MB level, winds are out of the southwest at 50kt-60kts. Stronger divergence values enter the region by Tuesday 03z, this will increase the lift in our atmosphere, causing it to be unstable. This trough and associated cold front will move into Mid-Missouri by Tuesday Morning. At the 500MB level, currently there are 30kt-50kt winds coming from the southwest. Heading into Tuesday morning, the NAM model shows higher vorticity values at Tuesday 09z. With these higher values, this will increase our chances for showers to enter the region, but we’re expecting a low chance (10%-15%) of showers. Moisture associated with the cold front is abundant at the 700MB and 850MB levels Monday night through Tuesday. The cold front will pass in the early hours of Tuesday morning (4AM-5AM). A wind shift is present at the 850MB level, from south to west, but will eventually turn north as the day goes on Tuesday.

As we head into Wednesday, the trough moves east and out of our area, and a high pressure builds into the region. The 250MB level has weaker winds (20kt-30kt) in our area by Wednesday 15z, with stronger winds (50kt-60kt) near the MO/AR border. At the 500MB level, strong values of vorticity will be in the region, but due to the lack of moisture from the high pressure centered over MO/IA, nothing will come from it. On Wednesday, ridging builds in from the trough moving east. This will lead to sunny skies and seasonal temperatures (70°F) in the region. Moisture will not be present due to the high pressure building in near eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Winds will be out of the north as well, which will also limit moisture in the Mid-Missouri area.

– Ventimiglia, Hughley, Elston