Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 46°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 75°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 52°F
Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 76°F
Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 54°F
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General Discussion:
A dry atmosphere and easterly winds will keep conditions for Wednesday night mostly clear and help maintain cooler temperatures. By Thursday, winds shift from the south, leading to warmer temperatures through Friday. A band of mid-level moisture on Friday may bring some clouds and a slight (10%) chance of drizzle, though most of it is unlikely to reach the ground due to continued dry conditions.
- Brickler
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Forecasters: Brickler, Magnuson, Wernsman
Date Issued: 10/08/2025 22:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures will start to rise back above daily high averages (70℉) throughout the end of the week while remaining closer to the nightly averages (50℉).
- A very slight chance (10%) of drizzle to accompany mid-level clouds for Friday around mid-day.
Wednesday Night
At the 300mb level, a ridge with its axis through the upper great plains is beginning to shift east. At the surface, the high pressure system associated with this ridge currently located in Wisconsin will continue to move east, supplying easterly winds to continue to pump dry air into Missouri. Clouds residing in Kansas will creep west towards Missouri, but will fall apart due to the dry atmosphere. The 700 and 850mb levels confirm this as they are showing little to no moisture in mid-Missouri.
Thursday – Thursday Night
Thursday we’ll continue to see seasonal temperatures as the high pressure system continues to move eastward. This will shift our dry, easterly winds to southern winds which will bring a slight up tick in moisture and temperature. Looking at 700mb, the high pressure system will attempt to bring the moisture to our west into our area which could produce mid level clouds but will quickly dissipate. Thursday night we’ll see much of the same of the previous nights with lows in the low 50s and mostly clear conditions as a new ridge begins to build over the central plains.
Friday – Friday Night
Looking at 300mb throughout the day on Friday, a level of enhanced flow positioned over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will provide strong northwest winds along the west side of an unimpressive trough. A surface low forecast to be stationed over the Great Lakes, along with a weak high pressure system over the central plains, helps suggest some corresponding weak frontal movement from the northwest. The wind will start to tilt a little more from the Southwest as the day progresses and bring in relatively weak moisture; however, this will still be a noticeable rise due to the abnormally dry conditions we have been seeing as of late. This front then passes through, providing a slight wind shift at the surface from a south wind to more northwestern component, however, due to the weakening of the front, little temperature change is likely. Along this front, little but sufficient Omega values at the 700mb level will provide moderate lifting enough to support mid-level cloud cover and a slim chance of a shower or two (10%). Highs and lows alike for Friday climb back over the averages for this time of the year (70℉ and 50℉ respectively) with the temperatures being mid-70s during the day and mid-50s throughout the night.
Future forecasters should look for the strengthening of another ridge off to our west.
- Brickler, Magnuson, Wernsman
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 73°F
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 48°F
Thursday: Partly Sunny. High: 75°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 50°F
Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 74°F
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General Discussion:
There is a significant lack of moisture in the Mid-Missouri area that is keeping conditions mostly sunny and dry. Weak winds keep temperatures in the low to mid 70s throughout the forecast period.
-Wyrick
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Forecasters: Halter, Nightingale
Date Issued: 10/08/2025 09:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- The colder temperatures persist due to the geostrophic flow.
- Conditions stay calm for the forecast period due to lack of moisture at all levels.
Discussion:
The GFS was consulted more than the NAM because of the accurate moisture and temperature profiles.
Wednesday
The forecast area is in a stagnant weather pattern due to the geostrophic flow noted on multiple levels. Winds from the west are fairly weak, suggesting little change to temperature and moisture content. At both the 250 and 300 levels, a low passes over Mid-Missouri around Thursday at 00Z. A small patch of vorticity is associated with the low, which brings the opportunity for spin in the atmosphere. However, lower RH and omega values at 700 level limit our chances for any cloud cover or precipitation. Low moisture content means conditions will stay clear and mostly sunny and cool for all of Wednesday.
Thursday
The geostrophic flow continues into Thursday, paired with a ridging pattern that begins on Thursday at 06Z. This ridging pattern is consistent throughout all levels, following a low that moves out on Thursday at 09Z. At 700 mb, relative humidity values increase (>80%) at 12Z, but quickly exits the area by 21Z. This could point to the potential for some mid level clouds by Thursday afternoon. After the moisture moves out, a patch of WAA enters the area at 850 mb by late Thursday into early Friday, this could indicate a warm up for the end of the week.
Friday
Weak NW winds (between 10 and 20 knots) are found at 500 and 700 mb on Friday. A subtropical jet streak enters our area early Friday morning at the 250mb level, that’s associated with an influx of moisture at the 850 mb level. This suggests an increase in lower level cloud coverage, paired with an increase in temperatures by early Friday. By Friday at 06Z, we’re situated just SSE of a saddlepoint/col.
Future forecasters should note the incoming jet streak from the subtropical jet, the low level jet and the wind shift to the SW on Friday.
- Halter, Nightingale