Thursday, October 9th, 2025 – Morning Forecast

Thursday: Sunny. High: 73°F    

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 52°F    

Friday: Cloudy. High: 73°F    

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 54°F 

Saturday: Partly Cloudy. High: 75°F

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General Discussion:   

There will be a variety of sky conditions, starting with mostly sunny on Thursday, cloudy on Friday, and mostly cloudy on Saturday. There is a slight chance (20%) for rain on Friday accumulation up to 0.2 inches.

• Fields

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Forecasters: Fields, Malone

Date Issued: 10/09/2025 14:00:00 UTC   

Technical Discussion:  

Key Messages: 

• Clouds will move in on Friday and linger throughout the rest of the forecast period.
• There is a low chance (20%) for drizzle (0.2″) on Friday.

Technical Discussion

At 250 mb, there is ridging that causes consistent North-Westerly winds throughout the weekend. These winds are expected to bring cold, dry air into the Midwest causing some stabilization. At 500 mb, the NAM shows strong vorticity on Friday morning, while the GFS shows its peak overnight Saturday. This vorticity will help aide in rain chances for Friday but the lack of vorticity and other indices like moisture will keep the chances and amounts low for significant accumulation. Looking at 700 and 850 mb levels, we can see RH values around 90% on Thursday morning, but moisture clears out throughout the day meaning clear sky Thursday. However, high relative humidity returns on Friday morning and it will cause clouds to cover the sky. RAP model Skew-T’s indicate saturation from 850 to 300 mb, but with mid and low RH values hovering around 75% and 55% respectively. Sprinkles is the most likely form of precipitation not causing any major issues for commuters. DESI and NBM are in agreeance that the highest amount of rain would be 0.17″. Saturday will still be cloudy, but there is no chance for precipitation because of a lack of significant values of vorticity, mositure, and lift. The surface is uneventful with calm winds (0-10 kts) and temperatures in the mid-70s all weekend.

Future forecasters should consider the heavy cloud coverage and its effect on temperatures and changes to precipitation levels.

Fields, Malone

Wednesday, October 8th, 2025 – Afternoon Forecast

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 46°F    

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 75°F    

Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 52°F    

Friday: Mostly Cloudy. High: 76°F 

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 54°F 

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General Discussion:   

A dry atmosphere and easterly winds will keep conditions for Wednesday night mostly clear and help maintain cooler temperatures. By Thursday, winds shift from the south, leading to warmer temperatures through Friday. A band of mid-level moisture on Friday may bring some clouds and a slight (10%) chance of drizzle, though most of it is unlikely to reach the ground due to continued dry conditions.

• Brickler

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Forecasters: Brickler, Magnuson, Wernsman

Date Issued: 10/08/2025 22:00:00 UTC   

Technical Discussion:  

Key Messages: 

• Temperatures will start to rise back above daily high averages (70℉) throughout the end of the week while remaining closer to the nightly averages (50℉).
• A very slight chance (10%) of drizzle to accompany mid-level clouds for Friday around mid-day.

Wednesday Night

At the 300mb level, a ridge with its axis through the upper great plains is beginning to shift east. At the surface, the high pressure system associated with this ridge currently located in Wisconsin will continue to move east, supplying easterly winds to continue to pump dry air into Missouri. Clouds residing in Kansas will creep west towards Missouri, but will fall apart due to the dry atmosphere. The 700 and 850mb levels confirm this as they are showing little to no moisture in mid-Missouri.

Thursday – Thursday Night

Thursday we’ll continue to see seasonal temperatures as the high pressure system continues to move eastward. This will shift our dry, easterly winds to southern winds which will bring a slight up tick in moisture and temperature. Looking at 700mb, the high pressure system will attempt to bring the moisture to our west into our area which could produce mid level clouds but will quickly dissipate. Thursday night we’ll see much of the same of the previous nights with lows in the low 50s and mostly clear conditions as a new ridge begins to build over the central plains.   

Friday – Friday Night

Looking at 300mb throughout the day on Friday, a level of enhanced flow positioned over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will provide strong northwest winds along the west side of an unimpressive trough. A surface low forecast to be stationed over the Great Lakes, along with a weak high pressure system over the central plains, helps suggest some corresponding weak frontal movement from the northwest. The wind will start to tilt a little more from the Southwest as the day progresses and bring in relatively weak moisture; however, this will still be a noticeable rise due to the abnormally dry conditions we have been seeing as of late. This front then passes through, providing a slight wind shift at the surface from a south wind to more northwestern component, however, due to the weakening of the front, little temperature change is likely. Along this front, little but sufficient Omega values at the 700mb level will provide moderate lifting enough to support mid-level cloud cover and a slim chance of a shower or two (10%). Highs and lows alike for Friday climb back over the averages for this time of the year (70℉ and 50℉ respectively) with the temperatures being mid-70s during the day and mid-50s throughout the night.

Future forecasters should look for the strengthening of another ridge off to our west.

• Brickler, Magnuson, Wernsman