Friday, October 24th, 2025 – Afternoon Forecast
Friday Night: Cloudy chances of light rain low confidence (20%) Low: 49°F
Saturday: On and off rain, Chance thunder confidence (70%) High: 56°F
Saturday Night: On and off rain, few rumbles of isolated thunder confidence (70%) Low: 49°F
Sunday: Overcast light showers (60%) High: 55°F
Sunday Night: Overcast spotty showers (40%) Low: 47°F
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General Discussion:
The weekend will be characterized by overcast clouds accompanied with increased moisture aloft as a closed low approaches from the west. A few rumbles of thunder could be experienced. Due to insufficient moisture at the lower levels and surface, any precipitation will be periodic and light. Such conditions will cause temperatures to steadily fall, still remaining within the seasonal average, before plateauing as the weekend comes to a close and the low moves out of the area.
-Graves, Rhodes, Kofahl
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Forecasters: Graves, Rhodes, Kofahl
Date Issued: 10/24/2025 22:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-Overcast and precipitation chances throughout the weekend. Best chances of rain will be all day Saturday with possible rumbles of thunder.
– Temperatures this weekend will follow a subtle cooling trend but will stay on average for the month of October.
-Rainfall amounts for Saturday will lean towards 0.25”-0.5”. Expect Sunday’s rainfall totals to be up to 0.25”.
The trough that was previously over our area that brought the strong winds and cooler temperatures is ejecting to the east, allowing the ridge behind it to move in. This ridge over the High and Western Plains has a “Cut-off” Low pressure system attached to the base, making this our next “weather maker”. This low will bring vorticity into the area which will strengthen any development that does evolve in the favorable environment that it provides.
As of Friday afternoon, the dry air present in the lower atmosphere is reducing the precipitation that is reaching the ground causing an effect known as “Virga”. However, as the low fully moves into the area it will erode this layer of dry air. Moisture drawn into the area by the low pressure cyclone will promote favorable conditions for overcast skies and rain throughout the weekend. Sufficient vertical motion, indicated by 700mb omega, will provide conditions for a couple of rumbles of thunder in addition to a 60-70% confidence of light showers. This confidence will drop down to 40% in the final stretch of the forecast period as this vertical motion rapidly decreases.
Overcast conditions, in tandem with intermittent showers, will cause temperatures to steadily decrease. Additionally, limited diurnal heating paired with evaporative cooling, further favors this trend. As the closed low begins to be pinch-off by the larger ridge moving in from the west it will usher in easterly winds, causing temperatures to stabilize as the weekend closes out. Future forecasters should note models are trending towards an amplified longwave trough coming into our area early next week.
-Graves, Rhodes, Kofahl
Friday, October 24th, 2025 – Morning Forecast
Friday: Building clouds in the morning, overcast in the afternoon. Chance of a light shower (30%). High: 60°F
Friday Night: Overcast with light showers possible (30%). Low: 49°F
Saturday: Overcast with periods of light rain (70%). High: 58°F
Saturday Night: Overcast with intermittent light rain (70%). Low: 49°F
Sunday: Overcast with a chance of passing showers (60%). High: 55°F
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General Discussion:
Clouds building into mid-Missouri this morning will stick around into the start of next week. The weekend will be seasonally brisk and a little damp – cooler than average (mid/upper 50s compared to the mid-60s) with chances of rain (totals for the weekend from 0.1” to 0.2”), particularly on Saturday. Keep the raincoats and umbrellas at hand this weekend.
-Trotter, Osborn, Neumiller
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Forecasters: Osborn, Trotter, Neumiller
Date Issued: 10/24/2025 14:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
Overcast and precipitation chances throughout the weekend.
Cooler temperatures than what’s seasonally average.
The CWA is currently experiencing a buildup of clouds, with the expectation that by Friday afternoon, cloud coverage will be overcast. This moisture advection is being driven by the low-level jet and cutoff low to the west. There’s a warm front to the south, which is providing some lift which, when combined with the moisture, is creating some chances of light showers today (30%), but since there weren’t large amounts of omega, there shouldn’t be large levels of accumulation expected. This cloud cover is producing temperatures that are cooler than the seasonal average (65°F), with an anticipated high of 60°F for Friday. For Friday night, the chances of rain remain the same as during the day, with a low temperature of 49°F.
Moving into Saturday, the chances of rain increase with periods popping up throughout the day (70%). There are greater levels of omega, causing these showers to be slightly more convective, which will produce higher levels of accumulation of up to 0.2”. The temperature on Saturday will be slightly cooler than friday due t the higher rain chances and accumulation with an expected high of 58°F. Saturday night will be similar to Friday night with a low temperature of 49°F as well.
As the low moves by on Sunday, the heaviest rain is expected to the southeast of the CWA. There’s still a chance for rain, but not as intense as surrounding areas (60%). The temperatures for Sunday will be the coolest of the weekend, with a high of 55°F, with the cooldown will be attributed to the precipitation and cloud cover.
Looking toward the start of next week, cloud cover will stick around, and temperatures will remain slightly below average.
-Osborn, Trotter, Neumiller