Thursday: Cloudy. 45°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. 29°F
Friday: Decreasing Clouds. 37°F
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. 21°F
Saturday: Cloudy. 25°F
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General Discussion:
Over the next few days, temperatures are on a downward trend starting with highs in the mid-40s Thursday that decrease to the mid-20s by Saturday. Clouds will cover the sky for the majority of the next few days, and there is a slight chance (20%) for about 0.2″ of snowfall Saturday afternoon.
-Fields
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Forecaster: Fields
Date Issued: 12/11/2025 03:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Surface winds shift from Southwesterly Thursday to Northwesterly on Friday that will assist in decreasing temperatures.
- There is a chance (20%) for snow Saturday afternoon.
Thursday
At 250-300 mb, there is Northwesterly flow which will cool down and dry out the atmosphere on Friday. There are some areas of vorticity passing through on Thursday due to relatively warmer temperatures at the surface, but no areas that are significant enough to produce precipitation or severe weather. Descending to 700 mb, there is significant moisture (around 98% RH) accompanied by high OMEGA values (-9) that enters mid-day and lingers into the late evening. This is the main reason that the CWA will see overcast conditions, but the moisture content does not remain this high in the lower levels. At 850 mb, the NAM and GFS suggest only 63% and 57% RH respectively, so precipitation is unlikely (<10%). At the surface, winds are relatively calm with a maximum speed of around 10 kts. Temperatures reach the mid-40s due to a Southwesterly wind caused by a high over the Ohio River Valley and a low over the Northern Plains.
Friday
Aside from a shift from Northwesterly to West-Northwesterly flow, the upper levels of the atmosphere are fairly calm. There is little to no vorticity seen at 500 mb, very little lift at 700 mb, and moisture reaching a maximum of 55% RH. There is less moisture at 850 mb as well with values reaching 75% RH. The main point of significance for Friday is the low that will pass through overnight Thursday. It will bring a Northwesterly wind that will cause cold air advection for Friday, as seen by solenoids and high temperatures decreasing into the mid-20s. Model Skew-T’s indicate saturation near the surface, which will likely bring frost on Friday morning (60%).
Saturday
At 300 mb, the flow returns to Northwesterly, which will continue the downward trend of temperatures. There are no significant areas of vorticity at 500 mb, but moisture is introduced into the area again at 700 mb. OMEGA values reach -5 in some areas, which will help with the production of light snow. Model Skew-T’s show saturation starting at 700 mb that descends down to the surface in the afternoon. Temperatures throughout this time remain below freezing, and the snow will likely reach the surface. However, the high intensity and duration of these snowy conditions will only last for a short time, so the snow total will likely be between 0.1 and 0.4 inches (60%).
Future forecasters should pay attention to changing conditions that can increase the amount of snowfall seen on Saturday.
-Fields
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Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. 26°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. 45°F
Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. 29°F
Friday: Morning Fog; Mostly Sunny. 37°F
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. 21°F
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General Discussion:
As classes start to wrap up, expect cloudy conditions throughout Wednesday night through late Thursday night. An increase in surface moisture could lead to fog Friday morning throughout the mid-day hours. Also, over the next couple of days, temperatures will start at the average for this time of the year (mid-40s) and then begin to dip down below these amounts due to an arctic air mass tracking into the forecast for the weekend.
-Brickler =============================================================================
Forecasters: Brickler, Magnuson, Wernsman
Date Issued: 12/10/2025 23:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Cloudy conditions persist throughout the majority of the forecast period
- Temperatures will start to decline below average (mid-40s) starting on Friday
- Potential for fog Friday morning
Wednesday Night – Thursday
Current mid-Missouri conditions, including a quick dry slot late this afternoon, are due to the low-pressure system situated over the northeast continental United States. A cooldown has already started to progress due to the couple of cold fronts that passed through the area associated with this low-pressure system. The exact location of this low-pressure system has started to back its previous eastward progression and has created a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region into eastern Missouri/western Illinois. The 300mb jetstream follows this general longwave pattern and initially holds a northwest flow and then starts to level out to a zonal flow into the mid-day hours on Thursday. Because of this eventual change in flow, very little vorticity or lift is prevalent throughout the rest of the forecast period.
Cross-sectional and isentropic analysis reveals a dry air mass from the north ushered in by a strengthening low-pressure system originating over South Dakota early Thursday morning. This slot of dry air is mainly in the low- to mid-levels initially for this time. This will eventually get overtaken by a swath of moisture from the west-northwest analyzed from strong areas of isentropic upglide along this low-pressure’s warm front. This will in turn create a very moist atmosphere, creating clouds throughout all levels for the majority of Thursday. However, it should be noted that the warm front’s exact positioning could hinder the timing and movement of cloud cover. If that warm front is weaker and stalls (which is what some models suggest) then the line of cloud cover will generally be right over the forecast area. However, if the warm front moves through faster than expected and could cause warmer temperatures behind that warm front as well as less cloud coverage.
Thursday Night – Friday night
With the tracking of that low-pressure system, concurrent with the upper-level jetstream, it will move into the forecast area and continue east, bringing us an arctic air mass Thursday night into Friday morning giving us below average temperatures (mid-40s). This air mass will usher out any mid-level moisture throughout the night, but will leave enough surface moisture as well as a weak wind to bring a possibility for fog in low-laying areas Friday morning where winds remain below five knots. After the low-pressure system moves further into the east, high-level clouds are expected to linger and progress into a second band of moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere into Friday night. Temperatures will persist to drop into the low-20s throughout Friday night as well.
Future forecasters should look for the lasting effects of the previously mentioned warm front as well as the potential for fog Friday morning.
-Brickleruple of cold fronts that passed through the area associated with this low-pressure system. The exact location of this low-pressure system has started to back its previous eastward progression and has created a longwave trough extending from the Great Lakes region into eastern Missouri/western Illinois. The 300mb jetstream follows this general longwave pattern and initially holds a northwest flow and then starts to level out to a zonal flow into the mid-day hours on Thursday. Because of this eventual change in flow, very little vorticity or lift is prevalent throughout the rest of the forecast period.
Cross-sectional and isentropic analysis reveals a dry air mass from the north ushered in by a strengthening low-pressure system originating over South Dakota early Thursday morning. This slot of dry air is mainly in the low- to mid-levels initially for this time. This will eventually get overtaken by a swath of moisture from the west-northwest analyzed from strong areas of isentropic upglide along this low-pressure’s warm front. This will in turn create a very moist atmosphere, creating clouds throughout all levels for the majority of Thursday. However, it should be noted that the warm front’s exact positioning could hinder the timing and movement of cloud cover. If that warm front is weaker and stalls (which is what some models suggest) then the line of cloud cover will generally be right over the forecast area. However, if the warm front moves through faster than expected and could cause warmer temperatures behind that warm front as well as less cloud coverage.
Thursday Night – Friday night
With the tracking of that low-pressure system, concurrent with the upper-level jetstream, it will move into the forecast area and continue east, bringing us an arctic air mass Thursday night into Friday morning giving us below average temperatures (mid-40s). This air mass will usher out any mid-level moisture throughout the night, but will leave enough surface moisture as well as a weak wind to bring a possibility for fog in low-laying areas Friday morning where winds remain below five knots. After the low-pressure system moves further into the east, high-level clouds are expected to linger and progress into a second band of moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere into Friday night. Temperatures will persist to drop into the low-20s throughout Friday night as well.
Future forecasters should look for the lasting effects of the previously mentioned warm front as well as the potential for fog Friday morning.
-Brickler