Forecasters: Hachting, Ventimiglia, John
Date Issued: 2/17/2026 10:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
· Temperatures are expected to remain 15°F above average for the remainder of the forecast period
· Windy conditions throughout forecast period (20-30 mph)
· Slight chance for rain (20%) Tuesday night
The GFS and the NAM were used in this AFD as both models were concurring in the moisture availability and moisture advection to move into the area. These models also were similar in how they displayed the low level jet in providing the lift for the possible precipitation into Tuesday night.
Tuesday – Tuesday Night
The Missouri area is currently experiencing a ridging pattern as high pressure is present over most of the CONUS. Temperatures during Tuesday will remain warm as the ridging is present throughout the day. The area is currently experiencing short wave disturbances at the 500 mb level causing the current cloud cover. As the current ridging moves off to the east coast, the jet stream begins to settle over the forecast area. A jet streak will be associated with the overhead jet stream; the jet streak will enter mid-Missouri around Wednesday at 6Z, allowing for lift to occur overnight and providing the area with disturbances. Continuing into Tuesday night, a low-pressure system is moving across the northern CONUS, providing vorticity advection into the forecast area. The disturbance will enter the region on Wednesday at 9Z and will help a slight chance (20%) of rain. While lifting is present, the low moisture content is what will limit the rain chances overnight. The moisture at 700 mb level is lacking as the only slight moisture available is shown on the GFS on Wednesday at 6Z. The low 700 mb moisture content will help limit the chance (20%) of precipitation overnight. Moisture advection is more present on 850mb and the surface, occurring around Wednesday 3Z to 9Z and will provide moisture for the low rain chance (20%). The overhead low-level jet will also provide ascent overnight for the available moisture. During the day and the night winds will be gusting up to 30 mph, as the low-level jet passes over the Columbia area. The low-level jet will also provide lift for the rain chances (20%), but the main limiting factor is the lack of moisture at the 700 mb level. Temperatures during Tuesday will remain warm as the ridging is present throughout the day.
Wednesday – Thursday
When the overnight system of possible precipitation moves out of the area, the polar jet stream will continue to flow overhead, preventing the colder air from moving into the forecast area. Allowing the temperatures at the surface to remain 15°F warmer than average but bringing winds with gusts of up to 20 mph during the remainder of the forecast period. Wednesday will be dry through all levels in the atmosphere allowing for clear conditions all day. Another low-pressure system will move through Iowa on Thursday, 18Z, causing disturbance to move through the Missouri area. While there are plenty of periods of lift, moisture is lacking at all levels during this period. In the lower-level, little moisture is present when this system moves through the forecast area. This will only provide our area with slight cloud cover in the afternoon Thursday. Looking into the weekend, future forecast shifts should monitor the temperature beginning to decrease, along with the possibility of winter precipitation on Saturday.
-Hachting