Thursday Morning Forecast (02/19/2026)
Thursday: Partly Cloudy, 70% Chance of Rain. 68°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. 32°F
Friday: Mostly Sunny. 44°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. 27°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny 42°F
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General Discussion:
A stationary front, attached to a low pressure system centered over Kansas, is located directly on top of Columbia, Missouri this morning. There is a 70% chance of rain for Thursday morning, whereafter a dramatic drop in temperature will occur. Throughout the remaining forecast period, seasonably warm temperatures will come to an end and high temperatures will be close to average (45°F).
-Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes
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Forecasters: Mathews, Houlihan, Rhodes
Date Issued: 02/19/2026 1600Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Temperatures for Thursday will remain above average in the high 60s
- Friday and Saturday, temperatures will drop with highs closer to average (45°F)
- Mostly cloudy for Thursday, sky will clear for Friday and Saturday
Currently, at the 300mb level, the jet stream is bringing moisture into Missouri with a southwesterly wind. Today, there is a moderate amount of divergence aloft at 12:00Z over Columbia. This is indicative of an active weather pattern, creating conditions for possible rain. As the jet stream persists throughout the weekend, expect gusty winds of about 15-20kts. At the 500mb level, there will be a persistent amount of moderate vorticity located over central Missouri. The strongest vorticity will occur today at 15:00Z, further contributing to the possibility of unsettled weather in Columbia today.
At 700mb, there will be significant relative humidity values over central Missouri (>80%) today at 15:00Z. For the remainder of the weekend, conditions gradually dry out. However, an exception to the trend will present itself early Saturday morning, where relative humidity will be 100% from 6:00z-15:00Z. Today, at 15:00z, significant omega values (~ -20) indicate significant amounts of lift that will provide the framework for rain. The rest of the weekend will see omega values between -1 and -5 and are unlikely to generate significant lift. Moving to 850mb, the relative humidity values will follow a similar pattern as the 700mb relative humidity. However, there is a notable discrepancy between the GFS and the NAM on Saturday. The GFS predicts that there will be relative humidity values of 80% whereas the NAM predicts there will be little to no moisture. This discrepancy indicates a high level of uncertainty for any unsettled weather to occur on Saturday. Additionally, at the 850mb level, it should be noted that cold air advection will be present from Thursday 21:00Z until the end of the forecast shift.
At the surface, there is a stationary front that is located directly above Columbia this morning. As the stationary front begins to give way to the cold front that is moving southward, Columbia will see a drastic drop in temperature. This also sets the groundwork for the unsettled weather that is expected this morning. Looking at the ensemble model, GEFS Plumes, there is an expected 0.4 in of rain for Thursday and no additional precipitation for the remainder of the weekend. While Saturday provides another chance of precipitation, the lack of consensus in relative humidity from the GFS and NAM. This disagreement leads to a low (20%) chance of rain for Columbia on Saturday morning. Wednesday Afternoon, 02/18
– Houlihan
Wednesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low 47°F
Thursday: Decreasing Clouds. High 68°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low 32°F
Friday: Few Clouds. High 44°F
Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low 27°F
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General Discussion:
Warm temperatures will come to an end later this week after the passage of a vigorous cold front, leading to another period of below freezing temperatures. Ensure that you are prepared for another period of cold weather and take normal precautions.
– Alferink
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Forecasters: Alferink, Trotter
Date Issued: 02/18/2026 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A strong cold front moves through the region on Friday at 6z, reducing temperatures to below seasonally average (46°F) after a period of well-above average temperatures.
- A Colorado low pressure system is traversing the Midwest United States into the Great Lakes region, drying the air out and increasing fire chances.
- Warm temperatures will remain throughout the Mid-Missouri region before frontal passage.
Temperatures are currently well-above seasonal average (46°F) across the Mid-Missouri region, reaching an afternoon high of approximately 69°F. Warmer temperatures and a dry atmosphere have contributed to the National Weather Service in St. Louis issuing a Red Flag Warning for 12:00PM – 8:00PM Wednesday due to the potential for rapidly spreading fires. At 300mb, a jet stream encompassing much of the Continental United States ranging from Alaska to the Atlantic Ocean features wind speeds around 140 knots (161 mph). Driving this jet stream is an upper-level trough reaching from British Columbia (BC) to the United States-Mexico border. Along with this primary upper-level trough, a secondary low over Wisconsin/Minnesota is further driving the flow of the jet stream. The shape of this system is driving moisture advection from the Pacific Ocean, resulting in increasing cloud cover during the overnight hours. Moving down to the 500mb level, moisture is continuing to be advected from the Pacific Ocean as high winds surpassing 120 knots (138 mph) maintain upper-level conditions. Moving down to the 700mb level, a large low pressure system has developed over Minnesota, leading to a small positively tilted trough over the Midwest and a larger ridging pattern emerging from Western Nebraska to Eastern Montana. An elongated trough from Western Montana to the Four Corners region has developed on the backside of this system, continuing to stack strong winds throughout multiple atmospheric layers. A weak surface cold front passed over the region from 12-15z on Wednesday, changing wind direction from WSW to W while also drying out conditions. Despite the passage of the cold front, temperatures didn’t see a significant decrease today.
Moving into Thursday, the upper-atmosphere at 300mb continues to be primarily influenced by a robust jet streak that continues to propel winds around 140 knots (161 mph) into Mid-Missouri. Scattered divergence aloft continues to be a factor in the potential for rising air over the period, although there aren’t any major batches that traverse the region. Dropping down to the 500mb level, increased vorticity progresses into the Columbia area with a maxima arriving between 15-18z. The primary consideration at 500mb involves a developing Colorado low pressure system that is seen at multiple atmospheric levels. Forming at 9z on Thursday, this low stacks to multiple levels of the atmosphere and aids conditions necessary for frontogenesis overnight Thursday into Friday. Beyond the Colorado low that is seen at 700mb, a shortwave traverses the region at 15z on Thursday, increasing omega. A cross section for Columbia reveals that potential precipitation will be impaired by a lack of lower-level moisture, however, increasing clouds are expected due to vertical lift and upper-level moisture. Further aiding cloud development is the low-level jet stream (LLJ) at 850mb, traversing from Kansas into northwestern Missouri and increasing wind speed in the lower atmosphere. At the surface, developed solenoids are causing warm air advection (WAA) and continuing to keep temperatures well-above seasonal expectations.
Early Friday, a strong cold front storms into the region around 6z Friday morning. This cold front correlates with upper atmospheric conditions, including an extremely powerful jet streak that emerges over Mid-Missouri with winds maxing out around 160 knots (184 mph) and remaining throughout the end of the forecast period. At the surface, a cold front is immediately evident from a distinct temperature gradient that occurs at 6z on Friday. Beyond a wind shift from WSW to NW and the strong temperature gradient, there is a marked reduction in thickness values as the 5400m thickness line moves from Iowa into southern Missouri. This front brings WAA immediately at passage before shifting to cold air advection (CAA) as the front moves through. This CAA will remain prevalent over the region throughout the daytime until Friday at 18z. The CAA and frontal passage result in large temperature contrasts over the forecast period, leading to a colder environment throughout the end of the forecast period.
After the FROPA early Friday, clearer conditions along with seasonally-appropriate temperatures will return in the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Upper-air conditions at 300mb highlight the continuation of the ~160kt flow over Mid-Missouri through the end of the forecast period along with an increase in divergence aloft around 0z Saturday. Shifting to the 500mb level, increasing positive differential vorticity advection begins at 3z Saturday which continues throughout the forecast period. While these conditions combine with increased relative humidity at 700mb, a lack of moisture from 850mb to the surface will impair significant precipitation.
Future forecasters should note a ridging pattern that emerges from Canada to Mexico. Additionally, any increase in low-level moisture across the Mid-Missouri region could enhance precipitation chances due to ample lift already in place.
– Alferink