Friday Night: Strong Thunderstorms, Some Severe. 56°F
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy. 62°F
Saturday Night: Decreasing Clouds. 38°F
Sunday: Clear. 67°F
Sunday Night: Clear 49°F
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General Discussion:
Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible throughout Friday night with two rounds expected. The first round will be capable of producing all severe weather hazards. The second line is expected to be weaker, but could produce large hail up to golf ball sized and damaging winds up to 70 mph. The weekend looks to be much calmer with temperatures feeling very spring-like, in the low to mid 60s with cloud cover decreasing.
– Scheerer
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Forecasters: Scheerer, Perrette
Date Issued: 03/05/2026 0:00Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Severe thunderstorms possible for late Friday night, with all hazards possible.
– Calmer conditions for the weekend with spring like highs remaining.
Friday Night
Mid Missouri is expected to have two rounds of strong to severe storms move through the area with all severe hazards possible including large hail up to golf ball sized, damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, and a tornado or two. As of 23z the first round has begun to form over western Missouri and is expected to move into Central Missouri over the next few hours. There has not been a dominant cell that has taken over this group of storms. However if one does, they are in a potent environment that could lead to the development of supercell thunderstorms with 0-6 km wind shear values > 40 kts and 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity values around 280 m^2/s^2. However, there is a large cap in place with CIN values around -250 J/kg that may inhibit development. The LLJ will be very active throughout the evening with winds screaming from the southwest at 40-50 kts which may lead to more wind shear to support these storms throughout the night.
The second round will develop off to the west in eastern Kansas and Western Missouri, forming a line of QLCS thunderstorms and move through the overnight hours. This line looks weaker than the first due to the more linear storm mode. The main threats that look possible with this would be damaging straight line winds and large hail. This is due to 0-3 km bulk shear around 30 kts that will help aid the development of large hail. In terms of damaging winds, DCAPE (downdraft CAPE) values will be greater than 500 J/kg, which will lead to strong mid level winds to mix down to the surface. Although we have sufficient low level shear (33 kts) and strong low level SRH values (410), there is not enough energy to lead to the development of tornadoes within the line. The line is expected to fully move out by early Saturday morning.
Weekend
After the storm system moves through, a calm weather pattern will build in and last throughout the weekend. The upper level flow will continue to be from the southwest as the upper level low in the baja region continues to impact the midwest. Along with this, mid level disturbance and sufficient moisture will continue to funnel into Columbia due to southwesterly winds. This will lead to continued cloud cover throughout the day Saturday. However, this low will be cut off from the upper level flow by Sunday morning, leading Mid-Missouri to return to light, zonal, westerly flow around 20 to 25 kt. This will cause conditions to dry out significantly as our winds flip to the west, causing clear conditions to close out the weekend. Future forecasts will need to continue to monitor the chance for severe weather as we enter into next week.
– Scheerer, Perrette