Monday 3/9

Monday: Clear. High: 80°F  

Monday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 59°F  

Tuesday: Partly Sunny. High: 82°F  

Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms (95%). Low: 50°F  

Wednesday: Rainy with chances of rumbles of thunder (80%). High: 61°F  

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General Discussion:  

Clear conditions dominate the region through the day on Monday with plenty of sunshine. Thunderstorms with potentially strong winds and hail will be the main threat through the forecast period with the strongest storms occurring on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

– Wyrick

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Forecasters: Graves, Schifferdecker, Wyrick

Date Issued: 3/9/2026 10:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:  

• Zonal flow will allow for clear conditions and warm temperatures on Monday
• There is high confidence (95%) in Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
• Strong winds and hail are the biggest threats due to a mid-level dry air intrusion and elevated CAPE values on Tuesday night

The GFS and NAM were used to account for their opposing biases when forecasting precipitation.

Monday

Conditions on Monday remain very calm and clear as zonal flow dominates the region at all levels. The low level jet remains present in the region though the entire forecast period, though wind speeds decrease over the course of the day, reaffirming the clear conditions. 500 mb vorticity increases in southern and central Missouri through the day along with surface relative humidity values, which exceed 80% by nightfall. This may result in some light cloud cover overnight. 

Tuesday

Clouds remain present through the morning hours on Tuesday. Wind divergence at 250 mb begins to increase through Mid-Missouri at 15Z, signaling the beginning of the more active pattern moving into the region. Two low-pressure systems, one in the southwestern United States and the northern Great Plains, allow for vorticity to increase significantly along a frontal boundary from the Upper Mississippi River Valley through south Texas by 21Z. Vertical velocity begins to increase at this time as well. Both vorticity and vertical velocity remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. Because of the looming front, Tuesday’s high temperatures can be expected to rise into the 80s due to prefrontal compressional warming. This is very elevated for this time of year as average temperatures are in the mid 50s. 

Wednesday

On Wednesday at 03Z, moisture begins to build into the region with the help of southerly winds encouraging advection. By 09Z, a deep trough begins to settle into the Mid-Missouri area, further supporting the active pattern. At this same time, 700 mb and 850 mb relative humidity values exceed 90% and the jet streak reaches peak wind speeds. These levels remain elevated through the end of the forecast period. The combination of these conditions suggest high chances of thunderstorms and rainfall ahead of a cold front, making it a catafront. Soundings from the timeframe of precipitation (Tuesday night through Wednesday morning) indicate a possibility for hail and strong winds, suggested by a mid-level dry air intrusion. CAPE values exceed 3000 j/kg at 21Z on Tuesday and 00Z on Wednesday, suggesting substantial energy to fuel the storm system. For this reason, Mid-Missouri is in a slight risk according to the SPC convective outlook. Future forecasters should continue to monitor the potential for severe weather. Additionally, be aware of clearing conditions and falling temperatures following the passage of this cold front.

– Wyrick, Schifferdecker