Friday Night: Clear. Low 55°F   

Saturday: Sunny. High 88°F   

Saturday Night: Mostly Clear. Low 63°F

Sunday: Increasing Clouds. High 81°F

Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low 41°F

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General Discussion:   

A record breaking upper level ridge centered over the Baja region will lead to near record breaking highs during the first half of the weekend. However, a cold front is expected to make its way through the midwest Sunday afternoon, bringing a break from the very warm temperatures and increased cloud cover throughout the later hours of Sunday into early Monday morning. 

-Scheerer

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Forecasters: Scheerer, Perrette

Date Issued: 03/20/2026 22:00Z  

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:   

• Very warm temperatures will persist throughout the first half of the weekend.
• A cold front will move through Sunday afternoon, bringing a break from the unseasonable temperatures

Friday Night

As of Friday 21z, much of the midwest is in a meridional flow regime with upper level winds from the northwest at around 60 kt due to a very impressive and historic upper level ridge currently over the southwestern U.S.. Compared to the other upper level ridges in the month of March, this ridge is 28 dam (or 3km) higher than average, which is very impressive. This ridge is the leading factor of the near record breaking highs observed over the last few days (low 80s Thursday and upper 80s Friday). Low level conditions will remain dry throughout the night due to the 850mb high pressure system being situated over the Gulf, blocking sufficient moisture from reaching mid-MO. At the surface, conditions will continue to feel warmer than average (lows in the mid 50s) and dry. 

Saturday 

Kinks in the upper level flow will develop throughout the morning hours of Saturday. This will lead to increased vorticity values and lift in the low to mid levels. However, sufficient moisture will not be present for cloud cover throughout the day due to blocking from the Baja high. Moisture from the northern Pacific will advect around the ridge during the late night hours of Saturday, which could make its way into mid-MO. This would lead to an increase in high clouds throughout the night with mostly clear conditions expected.

Sunday

Upper level flow will become more zonal by Sunday morning as the upper level high retreats to the southwest into the Pacific Ocean. Warm air advection will move into mid-MO due to prefrontal compressional warming. This will cause temperatures to warm into the lower 80s by the early afternoon. However, a potent cold front is expected to pass during the afternoon hours with strong cold air advection behind the front. This will lead to a much needed break from the very warm temperatures. Along with this, the associated 850mb low over northern New England will advect moisture from the Atlantic into mid-MO. Along with forcing from the front, upper level moisture will increase, leading to cloud cover increasing throughout the day and mostly cloudy conditions by Sunday night. 

-Scheerer