Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. 68°F  

Tuesday: Partly Sunny. 84°F  

Tuesday Night: Rain (50%). 67°F  

Wednesday: Cloudy. 77°F

Wednesday Night: Rain (60%). 57°F

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General Discussion: 

Seasonally warmer temperatures persist through the end of the week as both Tuesday night and Wednesday night bring the next chances for rain. Tuesday, during the day, will see high temperatures rise into the low 80s before rain chances increase (50%) for Tuesday night. Wednesday highs won’t reach as high as Tuesday, but will continue to be above average (66°F). Wednesday night a cold front passes through the area sparking another chance for rain (60%) and the possibility for severe weather. 

– Magnuson

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Forecasters: Brickler, Magnuson

Date Issued: 4/13/2026 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:  

Key Messages

• Above-average temperatures (66°F) persist through the end of the forecast period 
• Tuesday Night rain chances increase (50%) as well as the possibility for damaging winds
• Wednesday evening a cold front makes its way through the region producing widespread rain (60%) as well as the possibility for damaging winds and hail

Monday Night – Tuesday 

A positively-titled trough windward of the Rockies begins to trek eastward through the night. As this trough continues eastward, it begins to eject into the Great Plains and Upper-Midwest. A few shortwaves identified at the 500-mb level advect some disturbances of vorticity into the area. Due to this, the aforementioned ejection could bring severe weather for Monday night into Tuesday. However, the inhibiting factors far outweigh those in favor of this severe weather. Throughout the night, a stout cap at the 850-mb level inhibits any possible convection from occurring. With lack of any other forcing mechanisms limiting anything from firing, there are instability and low-level shear handoffs present. Nearing the surface, conditions dry out heading into Tuesday indicating limited cloud cover for most of the day. This will allow for convective heating, coupled with a southerly flow at the surface, to raise temperatures into the low 80s for tomorrow. 

Tuesday Night – Wednesday night

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning brings the next potential for severe weather. At the 250-mb level, increased upper-level divergence on the right exit region of the jet streak moves overhead, encouraging rising motion into the region. This, coupled with a low-pressure system associated with the aforementioned trough, advects moisture from the gulf into Mid-Missouri around Wednesday at 00z, setting the stage for widespread rain showers. The forcing mechanism for this will be the Low-Level Jet with high omega values (-25 ubar/s) around Wednesday at 03z. Ensemble models are indicative of anywhere between >0.1” (95%) to >0.25” (40%) of rainfall associated with this system. However, DCAPE values >1000 J/kg and positive Omega values stretching from the SFC up to 300-mb will look to limit any severe thunderstorms from forming. However, because of these strong DCAPE values, the severe threat for this system will likely be damaging winds.

For most of the day Wednesday, leftover cloud cover persists from the widespread rain in the morning. This will cause highs to only reach the upper 70s, as the attention of the forecast shifts to Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. During this time period, a cold front starts to enter the region around Thursday 03z. At the same time, increased upper-level divergence as well as the jet streak moving directly overhead, with sufficient mixing, will increase wind speeds down at the surface. At the 500-mb level a shortwave forms over the corner of the Nebraska-Iowa border while bringing increased vorticity disturbances into the area. Continuing down, RH values >90% near the surface will keep the air saturated before the FROPA. As the front starts to move through, it will act as a lifting mechanism. This will also produce widespread rain and the possibility of damaging winds and hail due to mid-level dry air intrusions present. The rain will exit the area leaving lingering clouds to start Thursday.

Future forecasters should look for the shortwave identified at the 500-mb level to grow into an open wave as it continues eastward through Thursday.

 – Magnuson