Friday: Partly Cloudy, 59°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy, 39°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny, 61°F
Saturday Night: Clear, 42°F
Sunday: Increasing Clouds, 75°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
High pressure is going to be the main player in the weather seen this weekend. Expect mostly clear conditions and slightly cooler temperatures until Sunday.
-Fields
==========================================================================
Forecaster: Fields
Date Issued: 05/01/2026 1600Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- High pressure sitting to the North and East of MO bring in cooler, dry air that will help with clearing conditions.
- Persistent northerly winds cut off moisture channels that would help with precipitation development.
Friday
The flow over the Midwest is very zonal through Friday. This flow will discourage the formation of active weather, as evidenced by the fact that there is little to no divergence aloft. A low over Ontario has a positively tilted trough axis that results in PVA throughout Friday and into late Saturday morning. This will provide some lift that will lead to cloud formation Friday night, acting upon the 700 mb RH that remains upwards of 80%. Despite the plentiful moisture at this level, model Skew-Ts do not show enough moisture depth to support rainfall. Any precipitation chances are further diminished by the northwesterly winds at 850 mb that cut off the typical moisture channel from the Gulf. The approaching air mass is cool and dry, which brings colder temperatures than what has been seen across the Midwest in previous weeks. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s, with the sky being mostly clear.
Saturday
Upper-level flow experiences a zonal shift as the trough originating in Ontario enters the Midwest. As mentioned before, increased vorticity is seen until late Saturday morning when ridging over the Rockies moves east. The approaching ridge clears much of the moisture from the previous day and brings sinking air which will decrease cloud coverage and clear the sky even more. The cooler northerly air will help to keep temperatures down with a high in the low 60s and a low in the lower 40s.
Sunday
A slight zonal shift is seen over the Midwest, which will allow for mostly clear conditions once again. There are a few shortwave disturbances early Sunday morning that create some divergence aloft and increased vorticity, but they are short-lived. The persistent northwesterly winds from the previous days leaves little moisture, but paired with the lift created by the shortwaves, there might be slightly cloudy conditions. At the surface, low pressure is seen over the western plains which brings in warmer air from the south. There is still very little moisture, but the warm air will allow temperatures to rise into the mid-70s.
Future forecasters should monitor moisture and lift for increased rainfall chances later on Sunday.
-Fields
=============================================================================
Thursday Afternoon Forecast (04/30/2026)
Thursday Night: Rain and Rumbles of Thunder. 40°F
Friday: Morning Sun, Then Building Clouds. 61°F
Friday Night: Clearing Clouds. 41°F
Saturday: Partly Sunny. 59°F
Saturday Night: Clear. 40°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Rain this evening is a possibility as a cold front passes through the area – there is also a possibility of some rumbles of thunder. Colder-than-average temperatures continue as the weekend approaches.
-Kofahl
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Kofahl
Date Issued: 04/30/2026 2300Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Possible showers Thursday night.
– Colder than average temperatures continue into the weekend.
Short Term Forecast (Thursday Night-Friday Afternoon)
Linear flow of the tropical jet continues through the lower planes and into the Ozarks, keeping most of the upper-level divergence south of Missouri into Oklahoma and Arkansas. This linear flow continues through Friday morning and into the afternoon, keeping the weather calm into the weekend. A large cyclone centered over the Great Lakes continues to move an abundance of cold polar air into the area, going into Thursday evening. This will create the possibility for some light frontal rain and perhaps some rumbles of thunder. Moisture present for these showers begins to dry up, moving into Friday afternoon. This will lead to some clearing as lower-level moisture is not impressive before another band of moisture once again supports some clouds moving into Friday night.
Long Term Forecast (Friday Night-Saturday Night)
Missouri begins to fall under the influence of a strong, positively tilted trough late Friday night. This influence continues throughout the weekend, leading to a much more subdued weather pattern. Lingering byproducts of the strong cyclone to the northeast continue to stick around Missouri until late Saturday afternoon. This negative vorticity advection also favors a more stable environment, which further stabilizes the environment that it lingers in over Missouri. Moisture is also lacking moving into the weekend, with little more than lower-level clouds likely. Temperatures are also expected to remain comfortable as low dewpoints (low 30s to mid 40s) continue into the latter half of the weekend. Winds continue throughout the forecasting period from the north and northwest, creating conditions that will continue to be colder than average (10 degrees below) for the next couple of days.
Future forecasts should note the ending of the positive trough pattern, leading to more active weather next week.
– Kofahl