Monday Morning Forecast (01/27/2025) 15:00Z

Monday: Sunny. High: 45°F 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 27°F 

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 50°F 

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 27°F 

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 49°F 

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General Discussion: 

Dry conditions and a southwesterly wind increase the fire risk for the beginning of the work week. Average highs are around 40°F for this time of year and temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above average due to the sunny skies and southwesterly winds. Towards the end of the week we will see an increased chance for showers.

• Nobles, Elston 

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Forecasters: Nobles, Elston

Date Issued: 01/27/2025 10:00 AM CST 

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages: 

•  With very dry conditions our biggest concern is fire weather.
• Temperatures will be 5-10°F above the average of 40°F due to abundant sunshine over our area.
• A chance of precipitation is likely outside of our forecast window towards Thursday.

Starting at 300mb, Columbia is just outside of a jet stream that will move overhead come Thursday morning bringing opportunity for precipitation. While considering our current synoptic setup we are shown as in between the polar and subtropical jet streams. Moving down towards 500mb, a line of vorticity is visible, but without anything in our lower layers energizing this line it is not of our concern today. Although we do observe vorticity moving along with our jet stream come Wednesday when it is overhead of Columbia. This vorticity will help aid the chance of precipitation towards the end of the week by creating a lifting mechanism and convergence. An observed low pressure system over California is progged to make its way towards Missouri and is also tracking with the vorticity shown at 500mb.

At 700mb, relative humidity is lacking for our forecasting period over our area although future forecasters will speak on the return towards the end of the week. With our temperatures being 5-10°F above average and having low RH we will have very dry conditions aiding towards fire weather. With our flow of southwesterly winds we can expect warm air advection to be the root of the above average temperatures creating the warming trend for our forecast period. While we are receiving WAA, by the time the potential precipitation moves into our area this week it will result with colder temperatures being apparent again. At 850mb and at our surface, the as mentioned above low pressure system off to our West disclosing at the surface as a precipitation event, although it is not overhead yet it is promising to see some precipitation trending with this low pressure system. We are receiving southwesterly winds which in turn may pull in the moisture we are looking for to help discontinue our dry conditions and help remove our fire weather hazards.

To conclude this forecast period we expect sunny skies tracking with the warmer temperatures and drier conditions. Future forecasters should focus on a tracking low pressure system moving towards Missouri bringing a potential chance of precipitation.

• Nobles, Elston