Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 25°F
Wednesday: Cloudy snow beginning around 4am to 5am. High: 30°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy snow stopping 4pm to 5pm. Low: 10°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 24°F
Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 13°F
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General Discussion:
Our winter storm is on track to blow through the region early in the morning on Wednesday. Snow accumulation is expected to be 3-5”, with the heaviest snow falling around 10am-2pm Wednesday afternoon. Our temperatures will begin a steady descent as the system passes through with high temperatures plummeting nearly 10 degrees below the 44°F average. Lows will plummet even further, flirting with single digits by the end of the week.
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
Date Issued: 11 February 2025 5:40 PM CST
Key Messages:
– A winter storm will move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing 3-5” of snow total accumulation.
– Temperatures will plummet with dangerously cold conditions persisting through the end of the week. Wind chills could hover around 0 degrees especially on Thursday.
Technical Discussion
Looking outside today, overcast skies and a few flurries remain as evening approaches. Upper-level water vapor imagery shows the remnants of a shortwave system moving east into the mid-atlantic. 300mb guidance depicts a jet max with enhanced divergence exiting the region as well. Moving forward through tonight, an upper-level longwave trof will eject into the region bringing a strong jet max and enhanced divergence aloft. Deterministic guidance is suggesting a healthy mid-latitude cyclone moving into the region in the early hours on Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing in a potentially problematic intrusion of dry air interacting with the system during the evening hours of the storm. Current forecast soundings show a relatively isothermal profile around -6°C allowing for decent aggregation of dendrites during the time that heaviest snow is expected to fall. However, this, coupled with winds 10-30 kts in the lower levels will break up the dendrites into smaller ice crystals resulting in SLRs around 12:1-10:1. This has resulted in expected snow totals of 3-5”.
Following the passage of the cyclone, temperatures are expected to plummet with highs in the mid to low 20s and lows in the teens. These dangerously cold temperatures are the result of the cold air mass pulled down from the north by our winter storm. These conditions will be further reinforced as some mild ridging fills in behind the system on Thursday. Future shifts should note a disturbance that currently appears immediately following the passage of this high pressure center, potentially increasing the chances of precipitation approaching the weekend.
Brucker
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Tuesday Morning – 11 February 2025
Tuesday: Cloudy. High: 36°F
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 25°F
Wednesday: Cloudy snow initiating around 6am to 9am. High: 30°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy snow stopping late. Low: 10°F
Thursday: Clouds clearing too mostly cloudy. High: 24°F
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General Discussion:
Starting off the day Tuesday, there might be some brief snow showers, but no accumulation is expected. Temperatures will remain below average, the average for the month (45oF highs) dropping through the week. On Wednesday, snowfall will start early in the morning and continue through most of the day. Total snow accumulation amounts from this event will range from 2-4″. Moving into Thursday
Beach
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Forecasters: Beach, Simmons
Date Issued: 11 February 2025 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– A winter weather system will be pushing into the forecast area which could see total snow accumulations of 2-4″.
– Temperatures will be dropping throughout the week which could bring in some hazardous wind chills Thursday.
Technical Discussion
At 300 MB on Tuesday, there is not much disturbance over the forecast area, which will allow for a calmer day. However, as the day progresses, a jet max will start to build as a trough develops to the west over the Rockies. As this system strengthens, short waves will begin to push in around 21Z, which could lead to some disruption. This is supported by the upper-level flow shown by both the SREF and GEFS, which show kinks at 500 MB. These small disturbances may result in some short-lived flurries later Tuesday, but accumulation is not expected.
Building into Wednesday, the models begin to show more uncertainty regarding the strength of the low pushing into the area. Nevertheless, all models agree on a positively tilted trough moving in around 09Z Wednesday. While the system’s intensity remains uncertain, both the NAM and GFS agree that most levels will be saturated starting Tuesday and lasting into late Wednesday when a dry slot begins to push in. The dominant precipitation type for this event will be snow, with a small chance for sleet mixed in. At the surface, there is some moisture advection, but it is not impressive, which will limit total snowfall amounts. This conclusion is supported when looking at soundings, which show a saturated column for most of the day on Wednesday but begin to dry out toward the evening. Based on guidance, predicted snowfall amounts for this system are in the 2-5″ range, with locally higher amounts possible.
Once this system moves through, the developed jet max over the area will start to push off to the east. However, this is not the end of the hazards, as cold temperatures begin to build, bringing hazardous wind chills. These wind chills should be damped in severity a little bit as dry air starts to move into the region allowing for gradual clearing throughout the layers on Thursday. Despite these variables, uncertainty remains higher than preferable for this forecast. Future forecasters should be aware of these variations and should watch for any swings in the temperature profile as new runs come out during the day.
Beach