Tuesday Night: Snow ending overnight. Low: 0°F
Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries. High: 12°F
Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: -4°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 14°F
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy: Low -2°F
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General Discussion:
Snow will continue to accumulate for the rest of the evening and early morning hours Wednesday giving us an extra 1-3” of snow. Arctic temperatures following this system will persist by the end of the week bringing in wind chill values below freezing.
Latlip
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
Date Issued: 02/18/2025 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Snowfall will continue throughout the evening ending late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
- An extra 1-3’’ of snow is possible.
- Bitterly cold temperatures funneling in with early morning wind chill values at -10°F to -15°F will persist through Friday morning.
Upper-level divergence encouraging ample lift has been our contributing factor for this current snowstorm. Low-level moisture advection helped break into the dry air that was in place earlier today, allowing for snow to start in the early afternoon hours. Snowflakes will remain on the smaller size as winds aloft are near 30kts, encouraging the fracturing of dendrites. Moisture still remains in place throughout the evening and overnight with RH values around 80%. Snow will continue to fall during this time giving us an extra 1-3’’ of accumulation possible. Roads will remain slick Wednesday morning due to this extra accumulation.
Drier and much colder air will be in place tonight into the rest of the week as strong CAA will be bringing in extremely cold temperatures. Tonight, temperatures will drop to near 0°F with wind chills in the -10°F to -15°F range. Wednesday will remain cloudy with some flurries possible due to some extra moisture wrapping around the low-pressure system, and slight upper-level support. No accumulations are expected. Wednesday night is expected to be our coldest night due to decreasing cloud cover, low temperatures are expected to be in a chilling 0°F to -5°F range and killer wind chills near -20°F. High pressure will fully set in on Thursday with strong subsidence keeping this extremely cold air in place. Thankfully, a warm up is looking very possible for future forecast shifts by the weekend.
-Latlip
Tuesday: Cloudy with afternoon snow. High: 9°F
Tuesday Night: Snow ending overnight. Low: 3°F
Wednesday: Cloudy with flurries. High: 12°F
Wednesday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: -4°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High: 17°F
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General Discussion:
A break in the snow this morning will pave way for another accumulating round of snow this afternoon and evening. A couple more inches are still expected with bitter cold temperatures the next few days. Wind chills will be below zero for most of the forecast period with frostbite potential if skin is exposed for long enough.
Simmons, Beach
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Forecasters: Beach, Simmons
Date Issued: 02/18/2025 10:30 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Winter Weather Advisory continues for today with additional snowfall expected
- Dangerous cold the next few days with wind chills well below zero
Mid-level frontogenic banding that brought banded snowfall overnight has subsided and dry time is ensuing temporarily. Radar imagery as of 15Z showed an increase in snowfall both in coverage and intensity starting to develop in Southwest Missouri. This increase is a result of a propagating shortwave trough in the Central Plains moving eastward today. Associated mid-level spin and lift ahead of the trough axis will continue to support snowfall production as a surface low begins to deepen in the Red River Valley in Oklahoma. Deterministic guidance has the 850 mb low trekking northeastward through Arkansas which will allow for the snow shield to spread northward. An associated warm front with the low will lift northward across Southern Missouri this afternoon aiding in precipitation as well. HREF probabilities for one hour accumulation and deterministic guidance for three hour accumulation show a sharp cut-off in precipitation along the I-70 corridor and points just north. This lends medium confidence in snowfall amounts along that corridor with better chances for higher accumulation closer to the Ozarks. Due to anomalously cold temperatures for February (Avg High: 47), snow to liquid ratios will be the 16:1–18:1 range. Ensemble QPF amounts show a range of roughly 0.1 to 0.2 inches of liquid equivalent for Columbia. This leads us to believe that new snowfall will be generally 1-3″ this afternoon/evening with snow ending from west to east overnight. This will at least lead to minor impacts in Mid-Missouri with snow easily sticking to any surface including roadways so slick travel is expected into Wednesday morning.
Temperatures bottom out close to zero again for morning lows with wind chills near -10 for Wednesday morning. Vorticity maxima will swing through the Central US on Wednesday with the associated troughing. In addition, some low-level moisture will still be prevalent in the form of cloud cover and cyclonic flow could spit out a few flurries (20%). The trough axis swings through Wednesday-Thursday and decreasing clouds will allow temperatures to fall even further Wednesday night. With light northerly winds and a snowpack on the ground, we elected to drop temperatures a couple more degrees than the previous shift. Wind chills will be between -15 and -20 degrees which will be the coldest of the forecast period. Thursday will see more in the form of sunshine and a few clouds as low level ridging and high pressure builds in.
-Simmons, Beach