Friday Morning Forecast 3/21/2025 10:00am
Friday: Increasing Clouds. High: 63°F
Friday Night: Some Clouds. Low: 38°F
Saturday: Increasing Clouds. High: 63°F
Saturday Night: Evening Showers and Thunderstorms. Low: 48°F
Sunday: Rain Wraps Up; Clouds Decrease. High: 62°F
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General Discussion:
A red flag warning is in effect again for Boone county as fire risk pose an issue for another day this week. A small system will move through this evening bring in more clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two. The bigger chance for rain will be on Saturday night as 1/4-3/4 inch of rain is expected. During this system a few rumbles of thunder and small hail is possible. Behind these systems temperatures remain near average for the weekend (AVG HI: 58F; LO: 37F)
– McCluskey
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Forecasters: McCluskey
Date Issued: 03/021/2025 10:00am
Technical Discussion:
Key messages
- Outdoor burning show be avoided throughout the day on Friday as low relative levels and gusting conditions call for a Red Flag warning.
- Small frontal systems will bring in increased clouds and a sprinkle for two Friday night.
- Low pressure system will produce another frontal boundary to bring in measurable rain on Sunday. Couple rumbles of thunder and small hail is possible late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Today is another gusty and dry day. Throughout the next few hours this morning surface level relative humidity levels are expected to drop into the low 30s and upper 20s. Surface level dew points follow in the same trend as they track near the middle to upper 20s throughout the day. These conditions pair with gusts in the 30s create the perfect conditions for a Red Flag Warning. The ingredients of this fire danger all stem from the tighter thermal gradient at the surface and the orientation our winds. This helps transport drier air into the region throughout the day. This Red Flag Warning will continue from 17z- 00z this evening. Around the expiration of this warning, the cold front currently draped across our western territory will progress through the area allowing winds to shift and die down. The cold front will allow for minimal upper level moisture to advance into mid-Missouri. Differences are present when comparing upper-level moisture on the NAM and GFS, however both are showing minimal relief in dry conditions. The passage of this cold front is not expected to have a drastic impact on temperatures.
A surface level high currently located North of the Dakotas will allow us to be dry throughout the day on Saturday. Throughout the day on Saturday a surface low will progress from Montana that will bring in much needed measurable rain. For most of the day on Saturday our upper-level flow at 250mb will stay zonal. A small shortwave will disrupt this flow early Sunday morning around 05z-08z. Prior to this disturbance warm air advection will be present throughout the day on Saturday. This will allow for temperatures to reach back above seasonal post Friday’s frontal passage. By 00z on Sunday a low will form off the Rockies and will be paired with the low from Montana. As these lows advance they will bring in much need moisture and rain. The previously mentioned shortwave will be the primary aggressor for these storms and rain showers. Rain showers will began to form late Saturday night and continue through the early morning hours on Sunday. Since moisture is lacking prior to the passage of this frontal system and formation is not expected to be as cohesive as areas to our east. We are only anticipating about 0.25-0.75 inch of rain.
Due to the convective capability of this storm and the sufficient wind shear seen on soundings, a few thunderstorms are possible with this round of showers. The sufficient wind shear and steep lapse rates on NAM and GFS soundings show the potential for small hail during this system. The rain is expected to finish up by 14z Sunday morning leaving middle temperatures for the rest of the weekend. Behind the passage of this system clouds will clear making way for pops of sunshine to end the weekend.
-McCluskey