Tuesday Night: Building clouds. Low: 57°F   

Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 79°F   

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 60°F   

Thursday: Chance for sprinkles (15-20%). High: 78°F

Thursday Night: Chance for showers (30-40%). Low: 61°F

=============================================================================   

General Discussion:   

Clear and warm conditions persist today as largely zonal flow aloft and south/southwesterly winds prevail. These conditions are expected to persist through the week, although a few shortwave disturbances will kick off some cloud cover and chances for rain by late week. 

-Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy

=============================================================================   

Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy

Date Issued: 04/22/2025 5:00 PM CST   

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:   

• Warm and pleasant conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week along with mostly light winds.
• Cloud cover should build and weaken a few times over the course of the week, with heavier cloud cover arriving on Thursday.
• A chance (15-20%) for showers appears on Thursday, increasing overnight lending higher confidence (30-40%) in a chance for rain Thursday night into Friday.

Persistent zonal flow aloft is expected to remain through most of the forecast period. A weak low pressure center is situated north of the upper-midwest, and a decent high pressure system lingers over the mid-atlantic region on the atlantic coast. These two systems are creating a quiet zone over central Missouri as they pull moisture and any rainfall to the north and south of the forecast area. This dynamic will continue to funnel any precipitation around the area, only allowing moderate cloud cover to advance into the area throughout the week. Additionally, these systems have created a pseudo high-pressure environment where conditions should remain consistent with high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s through at least Thursday. On Wednesday a series of weak to somewhat amplified shortwaves will begin to train through the region. The first of these perturbations will provide meager forcing for ascent atop adequate moisture leading to a low, but non-zero chance (5-10%) for isolated sprinkles overnight on Wednesday. Following this, cloud cover is expected to roll back in over the area ahead of some marginally higher rain chances on Thursday, and especially on Thursday night. This will be induced by a higher amplitude shortwave ahead of a weak upper-level trough with the NAM producing a pronounced 500mb low with ample mid-level forcing moving from central Nebraska into Iowa Thursday afternoon. A weak cold front may try to extend south from this system and produce scattered showers, however the majority of model guidance places this precipitation north of the forecast area. That being said, future forecast shifts should monitor the progression of the system as model consensus improves. Additionally, the NAM seems to be heavily showing its moisture bias and is consistently forecasting stronger systems and deeper shortwaves moving through the area. Most high-resolution and short range guidance, however, is agreeing with a lower chance of precipitation making it into central Missouri.

-Brucker