Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 55°F
Wednesday: Cloudy, Scattered Showers (70%). High: 70°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy, Scattered Showers (50%). Low: 54°F
Thursday: Cloudy, Light Showers (40%). High: 71°F
Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 50°F
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General Discussion:
Unsettled weather with increasing rain changes (50-70%) returns through the end of the week. These storms aren’t anticipated to be severe, but a rumble of thunder shouldn’t be ruled out. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below climatological averages (73°F high, 52°F low).
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy, Peine
Date Issued: 05/06/2025 22:00 Z
Technical Discussion:
Key Message:
- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across central Missouri through Friday.
- The potential for severe weather remains low, although isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be entirely discounted.
- Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal averages (73°F high, 52°F low).
Currently, increased cloud cover is attributed to an approaching shortwave trough embedded within the larger upper-level cyclonic circulation, situated over the desert southwest. This quasi-stationary upper-level low-pressure system is generating a persistent southerly flow, advecting Gulf moisture. This is destabilizing the atmosphere, causing a high probability of prolonged unsettled weather with a 70% chance of showers on Wednesday across central Missouri.
By Wednesday afternoon, the associated upper-level trough will have progressed over Kansas and Oklahoma, creating a split-flow regime over our area. 300mb GFS and NAM have shown divergence aloft by 21Z on Wednesday. However, convective potential remains limited, precluding the development of severe weather. The primary forcing mechanism will be isentropic ascent along a northward-lifting warm frontal boundary. Some convective cells may produce localized heavy rainfall, although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. High temperatures are expected to reach the low 70s.
The upper-level low will continue its gradual eastward progression and will remain influential across the region. Consequently, the 30% chance of light, scattered showers will persist most of the day on Thursday. Continuing into the overnight hours, the upper level pattern progresses into a dipole blocking event. The northern high associated with the setup will have more influence on our area, bringing cooler temperatures in the low 50s as we head into the early morning hours on Friday. Cloud cover is expected to decrease during this time, with mild temperatures to follow. Future forecasting shifts should look forward to a calm weekend ahead.
- Latlip, McCurdy
Tuesday Morning Forecast (5/6/25)
Tuesday: Clear. High: 72°F
Tuesday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 53°F
Wednesday: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. High: 68°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. Low: 54°F
Thursday: Cloudy, potential scattered showers. Low: 71°F
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General Discussion:
Starting off the week, the weather should remain relatively calm for Tuesday. However, as we progress through the day, clouds will start to build in before rain chances return for the rest of the week. These rain chances won’t be too significant, being widely scattered and remaining pretty light.
-Beach
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Forecasters: Malone, Beach
Date Issued: 05/06/2025 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Message:
Showers will return to the area by Wednesday.
Starting off the week on Tuesday, the sky should remain relatively clear throughout the day thanks in part to an upper-level blocking pattern. That quasi-omega blocking pattern, while still present, is starting to push out of the forecasting area through the day. As that blocking pushes out later Tuesday, more unstable weather will be allowed back into Missouri. The first signs of instability returning into the area are Wednesday at 09z, when PVA into the Missouri-Arkansas border could start to promote some lifting overnight. Thus, overnight tonight there could be some clouds that build in over mid-Missouri.
However, moving further into Wednesday, that same PVA starts to strengthen as it starts to cause some shortwave disturbances at 500 MB. These shortwaves, associated with the PVA, should also aid in providing ample forcing for ascent, which will aid in our rain chances for the week. To add onto that story, there is a deep moist layer permeating both 700 MB and 850 MB, so any storms that are to fire will have sufficient moisture to latch onto. But with CAPE only around 100 J/kg, most of the convection will remain as showers with a couple rumbles of thunder possible. Moving down to the surface, a warm front pushes up into our forecasting area, stalling just before its pass. This will be another factor that could promote the rain for the week, as convergence along that boundary could produce tracking storms. Thus, while extremely high rainfall amounts aren’t expected (~0.12” for Wednesday), some areas could experience higher local values.
This rainfall should continue through Thursday as that boundary continues to sit over the area. However, nearing the end of the forecasting period, the moisture starts to clear out across all levels. Thus, future forecasters should watch the cloudy conditions as the atmosphere becomes more zonal and stable.
-Beach