Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy, Afternoon Showers (90%). High: 70°F 

Wednesday Night: Evening showers likely (60%). Low: 54°F 

Thursday: Morning showers possible (30%). High: 69°F

Thursday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 49°F 

Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 70°F 

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General Discussion: 

There is a possibility of rain for Wednesday afternoon and the probability decreases going into Thursday morning. The rain, and most of the clouds will be moved out by Friday, providing pleasant and sunny conditions for being outside Friday! 

Nightingale

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Forecasters: Huebner, Nightingale, Chirpich

Date Issued: 05/07/2025 10:00 CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages: 

• Rain showers on Wednesday afternoon are likely (90%) and may continue into Thursday morning. 
• Cloud cover will prevail Wednesday and Thursday, with clearing conditions on Friday.

The GFS and NAM were used for this forecast due to their consensus in temperature and moisture accumulation. Additionally, GEFS plumes and the NBM were used to verify rainfall totals for the forecast period. 

Modeled at 250 mb, mild divergence is observed over the forecast region on Wednesday at 12Z. This is indicative of convergence at the surface, which will allow forcing for ascent (cloud cover). In the evening hours of Wednesday (03Z), a weakening upper-level low passes over the Western Plains, and begins to dissipate before passing over MO. By Thursday at 18Z, the area just north of the weak positively-tilted trough characterizes split-flow, and remains as such throughout the day on Friday.

500 mb models show circulation passing over the forecast region throughout the entirety of the day on Wednesday. There is a vort max evident on Thursday at 03Z, which is paired with the aforementioned upper-level low. The max lingers until Thursday at 18Z, before circulation trends to a banded pattern on Friday at 00Z, and eventually leaves the area on Friday at 09Z. Paired with circulation is upper-level moisture, which will work together to provide cloud cover on Wednesday and Thursday: 700 mb shows saturation over the area on Wednesday at 12Z (RH>90%). The values remain between 85% and 95% throughout the day on Wednesday, which will allow rain showers to continue through the night (90% chance of rain). On Friday at 03Z, WAA moves NE from Texarkana into MO as the forecast region dries out, as seen on both the NAM and GFS. 

Models at 800 mb mirror that of 700 mb;, however, the atmosphere is slightly less saturated. This is indicative of upper- level clouds and rain showers as opposed to heavy rainfall and significant accumulation. An absence of the LLJ inhibits moisture and temperature advection over the region, negating severe activity. Westerly winds dominate the forecast period until Friday, when a southerly component ushers warming temperatures into the region for the weekend.

Cloud cover is expected throughout the afternoon hours on Wednesday, as supported by the NBM 1D Viewer. Rainfall on Wednesday afternoon will persist into the evening hours on Thursday, accumulating to 0.5 in. Following showers, cloud cover will linger until the early morning hours of Friday, when clearing conditions will return. Highs for the period remain in the low 70s, and lows drop to the mid 50s. Future forecasters should note the clearing conditions and associated rising temperatures over the weekend.

Huebner, Chirpich