Thursday: Mostly Cloudy, Scattered Showers. Low: 54°F 

Thursday Night: Decreasing Clouds. High: 72°F 

Friday: Mostly Sunny. Low: 49°F

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. High: 72°F 

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. Low: 47°F

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General Discussion: 

Rainy conditions continue today paired with a cloudy sky. These clouds and chances for rain move out tonight and leave us with mostly clear sky conditions tomorrow and Saturday. We remain just at or slightly below average temperature-wise throughout this forecast period.

• Bivens

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Forecasters: Bean, Bivens

Date Issued: 05/08/2025 15:00Z

Technical Discussion: 

Key messages

• Dry conditions return Friday and Saturday after a brief period of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

• We remain just below our seasonal average low temperature (53°F) Thursday and Friday night.

Two upper level low pressure systems notable at 250mb will initiate a phenomena commonly known in both the meteorology and mathematics world called the Fujiwara effect. These lows will merge together as time progresses into Thursday evening, and propagate northeastward into the Great Lakes region. The placement of these lows aided in the formation of a positively tilted trough, with its axis extending from the eastern Canadian provinces into Colorado. This will aid in cold air pooling for much of the Midwest, partially explaining the incapability to reach the climatological high temperature average (74°F). All divergence aloft, associated with the subtropical jet which is in close relativity with the southern border of Missouri, will dissipate and leave us without a weather maker in the coming days.

An abundantly moist atmospheric profile remains prevalent Thursday, creating clouds and rain chances for the remainder of the day. This moisture, accompanied by significantly concentrated circulation now encapsulating the entire state, will start to be pulled away Thursday night into early Friday morning, following the track of the aforementioned lows. Most of this moisture will move out Friday. Remnant vorticity will still be notable until Friday night, leaving entirely on Saturday. It will not prove impactful on Friday however, as the moisture needed for rain or even much cloud production will be absent. Subsidence at 700 and 850mb Friday and Saturday, in addition to the previously discussed pathetic moisture and vorticity volume, will solidify pleasant conditions into the weekend.

Rain accumulation values will not surpass 0.5″, produced from scattered showers with high PWAT values (over an inch) but lacking much forcing for ascent throughout Thursday morning and afternoon. This rain will move out Thursday along with the upper level low pressure systems, soon to be replaced by a dominant surface level high pressure system. This high will bring about calm winds and clearer sky conditions, initiating diurnal heating. While we will still be under the influence of upper level cold air pooling and weak surface level cold air advection, a cloudless sky may bring about the ability to break our below-average high temperature streak. The next forecast shift should ensure they look for the quasi-omega blocking pattern forming, as these formations tend to produce unusual weather. With that, the Thursday morning Spring forecast group is signing off. We’ve been privileged to serve our campus. See you on the flip side.

• Bivens

Wednesday Night: Cloudy with showers. Low: 54°F 

Thursday: Showers, Mostly Cloudy. High: 72°F 

Thursday Night: Clouds Decreasing. Low: 49°F

Friday Morning: Mostly Sunny. High: 72°F 

Friday Night: Scattered Clouds. Low: 47°F

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General Discussion: 

Rain showers will be abundant Wednesday evening through the afternoon Thursday, before clouds move out of Columbia. Make sure to bring your umbrella to campus for the final day of classes. The rest of the week will have comfortable temperatures and sun! 

• Slutter

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Forecasters: Hayes, Slutter

Date Issued: 05/07/2025 22:00Z

Technical Discussion: 

Key messages

• There is an omega blocking pattern along with a cutoff low that is affecting the CWA for the majority of the forecasting shift. 
• The cutoff low will provide moisture to the CWA, which will induce showers Wednesday night and into the afternoon hours of Thursday. 
• Moisture will propagate out of the area Friday morning and give way to mostly sunny conditions for the remainder of the forecasting period. 

Currently, satellite imagery depicts an abundance of clouds in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This is courtesy of a cutoff low that is situated in the ArkLaTex region. This low is providing moisture for our region, as well as a source of lift as seen from omega values indicated in model forecasts, as well as current divergence aloft. The humidity has been steadily increasing throughout the forecast shift, with a 20% increase over a 2 hour period as these clouds continue to advance into our region. As a result of this, showers will occur throughout Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Precipitation amounts are expected to be on the moderate side, with a forecasted total accumulation of about 0.4 in during this period, with most rainfall occurring Wednesday night (~0.25 in). As with this rainfall, abundant moisture at the 700 and 850 mb levels will ensure cloud cover during the beginning periods of the forecast shift. 

As the cutoff low eventually propagates out of the MO area, it will also bring the aforementioned moisture content with it. This will decrease cloud cover throughout the CWA Thursday night, before leaving Friday through the end of the forecast period with abundant sunshine and few clouds. The reasoning behind this cutoff low is an omega blocking pattern. This pattern has been persisting for the past week. This will finally be washed away come the weekend as a large ridge helps to cleanse the current blocking pattern. This will induce more active weather patterns, although this will be out of range of this forecast shift. In the meantime, temperatures will be comfortable with highs in the low 70s. Future forecasters will want to monitor how this ridge evolves over time and the temperature changes that follow with it. 

• Slutter