Thursday Night: Few Clouds. Low: 52°F    

Friday: Showers (80%), then Overcast. High: 73°F    

Friday Night: Scattered Clouds. Low: 54°F 

Saturday: Scattered Clouds. High: 75°F

Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 56°F 

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General Discussion:   

Friday morning rain with rumbles of thunder are expected. A cold front will traverse through the CWA late Friday night. Ample cloud cover will be present throughout the end of the work week through the weekend. Grab an umbrella Friday morning on your way to class.

• Adkerson, Alferink

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Forecasters: Adkerson, Alferink, John

Date Issued: 10/09/2025 22:00:00 UTC   

Technical Discussion:  

Key Messages: 

• Models agree on a shortwave at 500mb and 700mb, inducing rainfall and periods of thunderstorms beginning around Friday 13z.
• A cold front will move into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, shifting surface winds from SW to NNE.
• Cloud cover will be prevalent throughout the entire forecast period.

Current conditions, as of Thursday 22z, depict strong winds in the upper atmosphere at 250mb, resulting from a large trough residing on the West Coast. There are few clouds above the CWA, with increasing cloud cover to the west. A high pressure system currently sits over the Great Lakes region, advancing towards the East Coast. This high pressure system is causing winds at the surface to come from the SE, prompting moisture advection.

Looking into Friday morning, a shortwave emerges over Central Missouri, provoking instability and convection. Skew-T models are in agreement with favorable atmospheric conditions for rainfall and potential thunderstorms (80%). Convective allowing models, such as the HRRR,  predict convective temperatures of 59°F , with max temperatures nearing 73°F. CAPE values hover in the mid 300’s J/Kg with Total Totals near 50, furthering the confirmation of thunderstorms. With southerly winds aiding in moisture advection, the CWA can expect around 0.13 inches of precipitation Friday from 13z to 17z. 

A cold front will traverse into the area Saturday 00z, causing a wind shift from SW to NNE at the surface. Scattered cloud conditions will reside in the CWA for the remainder of the weekend, causing high temperatures for Saturday to reach the mid 70’s. Overnight cloud cover following the cold front will keep the overnight low from falling below the mid 50’s.

Future forecasters should consider shortwave development and moisture advection for changes in rainfall and thunderstorm severity. 

-Adkerson, Alferink, John