Friday, November 14th, 2025 – Afternoon Forecast
Friday Night: Few Clouds, Low 61°F
Saturday: Partly Cloudy, High 76°F
Saturday Night: Decreasing Clouds, Low 44°F
Sunday: Mostly Sunny, High 60°F
Sunday Night: Clear, Low 40°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
We are under a strong ridge leading to fair weather and allowing record breaking temperatures(79°F) to occur Friday afternoon, breaking a previously held record(78°F) from 1931 at KCOU. as the weekend progresses a weak cold front will pass through, causing a cleaning of clouds and a sunny Sunday.
-Kofahl
=============================================================================
Forecaster: Kofahl
Date Issued: 11/15/2025 22:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- We are in the ridge stage of our current ridge-trough pattern
- Unseasonably warm temperatures exist because of the Ridge.
- Record-breaking temps recorded on Friday, breaking the previous record high from 1931
Currently, the atmosphere is in the ridge stage of our trough-ridge pattern, resulting in fair conditions with few clouds, leading to warm temperatures continuing throughout the weekend. This ridge setup is expected to continue until the start of next week. Weather associated with this ridge setup is expected to be mild due to the fundamental mechanisms of a ridge. Ridges are associated with high pressure; this causes the air to fall and warm, suppressing strong weather. This is expected to move into the more active trough stage next week.
Cloud cover this weekend favoring the NAM12 and the HERF cloud models. Friday night into early Saturday morning, there looks to be a chance for low-level clouds that build and then stick around for most of Saturday morning, then begin to move out of the area around mid morning. Mid-level clouds will begin to move into the area around 1 AM Saturday morning, and they will move out of the area with the low-level clouds. High-level clouds are expected to stick around throughout the weekend, but they will be wispy and thin cirrus clouds. Sunday looks to be the best day for a clear sky throughout the day and into the evening.
Relative humidity values are present to support the clouds at the different levels, with more moisture being allocated to the low-level clouds at the, increasing the thickness of that cloud layer. However, because of the dry air present, the chance for precipitation with these clouds throughout the duration of the weekend is little to non-existent.
Winds will start on Friday evening from the southwest and continue through Saturday, then there will be a wind shift following an associated cold front, to the northwest on Saturday in the afternoon, providing cooler and drier air, clearing out the clouds that evening, leading to clear conditions on Sunday.
Unseasonably warm temperatures will exist for the first part of the weekend. Friday temperatures peaked at 79°F, setting a new record for KCOU, the previous all-time record for KCOU of 78°F in 1931. Saturday temperatures will not be far behind, with temps peaking in the mid to high 70s, with the record once again 78°F back in 1894 within striking distance. Seasonal temperatures will begin to return to average as we move into next week.
Future forecasters should note the appearance of the next weather maker moving through the four corners region that will be moving into our area next week.
-Kofahl
Friday, November 14th, 2025 – Morning Forecast
Friday: Sunny, High 75°F
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds, Low 59°F
Saturday: Periods of Sun and Clouds, High 74°F
Saturday Night: Decreasing Cloud Cover, Low 42°F
Sunday: Mostly Sunny, High 60°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
Temperatures will come close to record highs today and tomorrow (both 78°F), and the expected low tonight (59°F) is warmer than the average high for mid-November (mid-50s). A cold front will pass through Missouri tomorrow evening, dropping temperatures much closer to the seasonal average (lows in the upper 30s) for Saturday night through the rest of the weekend. Although clouds will be in the area for much of the weekend, especially tomorrow, no rain is expected, leading to excellent weather for outdoor activities.
-Trotter
=============================================================================
Forecaster: Osborn
Date Issued: 11/14/2025 15:00:00 UTC
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Friday and Saturday are expected to be unseasonably warm (highs in the mid to upper 70s); however, a cold front moving through this weekend will create a sharp cool down going into Sunday.
- Upper levels are currently in a ridging pattern, indicating a stable and calm atmosphere through the weekend.
The upper levels of the atmosphere are currently in a ridging pattern, resulting in a calm, stable environment despite some winds with higher speeds. This pattern is expected to persist throughout the weekend, meaning we won’t get much more than any clouds, as the atmosphere doesn’t have anything present to set it off.
There isn’t much moisture present in the atmosphere currently; those in the forecast area should expect it to be mostly sunny during the day on Friday, but throughout the night, cloud cover will increase, with Saturday having periods changing from being cloudy to sunny throughout the day, which will cause the slightly cooler temperature between Friday and Saturday. Cloud cover will decrease again on Saturday night as the cold front moves through, with it being mostly sunny during the day on Sunday.
Closer to the surface, conditions will continue to remain mostly calm throughout the weekend. Through Friday and Saturday, mid-Missouri will experience temperatures above the seasonal averages (highs in the 50s, lows in the 30s), with anticipated highs in the mid-70s and a low on Friday night of 59. There could be potential for fog on Saturday morning, although this is unlikely as wind speeds will be too fast to allow this to develop. A cold front is expected to move through on Saturday night into Sunday morning with winds shifting from a southwesterly flow into a northwesterly flow, causing a drop in temperatures for a low on Saturday night of 40 and a high of 60 on Sunday, although these temperatures will remain above what’s typical for the season.
Overall, there isn’t much happening in the atmosphere over Missouri this weekend, and what is happening lacks the other necessary ingredients for any type of impactful weather to occur.
-Osborn